Plenty of gaps this weekend but with the US situation right now, any of them may be justified.

Trading the new account begins this week...if any trades become present.  The news right now...ugh, best for moi to stick on the sidelines.

:)

Following up on the EUR/USD post from yesterday, the pair came down to the 146 point last night and bounced pretty hard, making new 12 hour highs and putting a hole in the little hourly downtrend that we've had since making daily highs around 148 a couple/three days ago. So...1.46 maybe? After the bounce & punch, we came back to the first fib level of the recent swing upwards and bounced off of that.(146.35ish? <-- Sorry, I don't have the charts in front of me!)

So. 1.46 is what I'm watching right now. The markets look like they need to make a move soon but granted that we're coming down to the end of the week, we may just drift around the next 36 hours and let everyone digest the week's fundamentals over the weekend.

Still no trading, just having a bit of fun following the EUR/USD around. Also caught the U/J, would like to short this thing as well but that's more or less a "feeling" thing, especially with all the news flying around these days. I've not quite forgot my 2% loss with the U/J a couple of months ago...ha, definitely didn't forget that.

Good morning :)

Watching the EUR/USD right now...with the US econ crap that's going on and the push through the 38% of the latest EUR/USD decline, I feel the need to go long. However, I really don't have any solid (and by solid, I mean tested) support/resistance to depend on so I will hold off for now.

DailyFX is calling 145.5ish a support point...and I can see that on the hourly charts. Still not enough to trade this, at least not yet. I would like to see a pullback and bounce to either daily lows (146.10ish?) or to said 145.5ish support lines to provide conviction for a long trade up to the 148.5-149 area.

Just putting this out here. I want to trade it but won't, not until I can pull in some confirmation. I think this confirmation is especially valuable in times like these, with the USD swinging all over the placed based on someone, somewhere (Washington DC?) saying something :)

I'll keep watching for now...good morning!

Watching and waiting, new (larger) account upgrade

Still just watching...I'm not seeing anything that I'm too comfortable with right now. I'll continue to hold off until I see something I like.

That being said, I'll begin trading a separate, larger account with a new broker (FXSolutions) starting next week, 10/1. I'm going to aim for a gain of 5% on the account from 10/1 - 12/31/08.

*Keep in mind that when I begin trading the new account, I will disconcern myself with the gains made earlier this year and we'll be starting over with a fresh P/L %.

Missed the boat again (USD/CAD)...

...ha, nothing new here. Unfortunately, I couldn't pick-up my short entry last week (was hoping for another run up to 108) and USD/CAD followed through with an overdue break-out to the downside (some 450pips!).

No worries and it was good to see the trade worked out as I had wanted.

I was watching the GBP/USD last night, keeping an eye on the recent retrace and fib levels from the drop. Just watching for now...crazy markets right now. I picked a heck of a time to learn how to trade! :D

Good morning!

We saw a nice bounce off the rising trendline.support (spike down to 105.75 or so) early this morning and it now looks like the pair is headed upwards...may get to 108. tonight/early tomorrow and I'll be in for the ride back down.

Limit sell on the USD/CAD

I went ahead and setup a limit sell on the USD/CAD @ 108.01.  I'm attempting to take advantage of any further spike highs that we may have.  S/L above 108.6 and T/P @ 107.10 but will likely shut 1/2 of the trade down towards that point and see if we can ride the remainder below.

I really feel this is due for a breakout to the downside.  The 108. "top" is holding and there has been no daily close above 107.5

My concern revolves around the lack of lower lows, especially with the horrible USD news we've had this week.  The dollar just is not giving in quite yet...

Either way, tight S/L on the trade and we'll try and make it work.  Also, I'm stepping up my trade levels a bit, risking a full 2.5% on the trade and shooting for just less than a 5% gain (R/R = 1:2...almost).  I've been hesitant to trade full size lately and I'm trying to get over that :)

Sunday Gaps

Definitely some action going on across the pairs this afternoon...I'm just watching for now and will likely stay out of the action.  Strong moves.

Just sitting back for now, waiting for something to catch my eye.

Going over the USD/CAD trade...

Going over a bit more of last night's trade...

The good: 107 resistance held, as I expected.

The bad: I probably didn't give the trade enough thought before taking it and after looking through a couple of different expectations/views of the pair, the upward moving trendline on the the 3hr hit me in the face.

And while it was still a good range to play, it wasn't the safest at all, especially with all the conditions (USD strength, bullish ascending triangle). Most of all, for the tiny (original) target I had of 120pips or so, the risk was a bit overdone, going 1 for 1.5. It's also important to note that LAST WEEK's USD/CAD short used technicals WITH the fundamentals aligning (poor USD data + good CAD data). And although we did see some downward movement with that news, it still could not break a previous low (105.5) and obviously didn't impact the pair as much as I thought it would. This should have been a big heads up for me helped realistically arrange my T/P from the start...or it should have kept me out of the trade all together.

Regardless, the trade was based on solid resistance in addition to a range, which did hold true. It was a good decision to scale out early as we DID get quite a bounce right off the 106.00-05 price point.

The charting below shows the bullish ascending triangle & range on the daily as well as a close-up of the range on the one hour, showing my (damn near perfect... or fortunate) entry & exit.

Good morning :)

106.1 hit overnight for the last 1/4 of that USD/CAD short.  I'll run over P/L updates later.

Closed another 1/4 position out at 106.3, last 1/4 is riding.  I'm looking to get another solid bear candle in the next few minutes for the 12-1AM pst hourly close.

Good morning :)

USD/CAD update

bumped the t/p up to 106.10, in an attempt to avoid any support bounce @ 106.  S/L remains at breakeven.  We just closed up the hourly candle @ 12am PST and are at +39pips.  Taking 1/2 off the table.

USD/CAD S/L moved to breakeven, thinking on this one...

Mmk, I'm seeing a ascending triangle here and while I still believe we will see some retrace lower to the rising support (perhaps 105.7 level), I'm not going to fight the uptrend + global USD strength.  And while the CAD has been able to hold off most of the USD bulls at 107., it's just not worth the risk for 100 pips.

Below you can see the ascending triangle that I'm talking about...a bullish formation.  This added with global USD strength...eh.

My trade last week was based in part on the fundies...a weak NFP and strong CAD employment news.  This has apparently worn off and is not longer applicable.

Short USD/CAD @ 106.79

Same trade as earlier, same reason.  We're seeing some resistance in the 107. area...USD rallied against all other pairs while CAD held the line.  I believe the CAD is a bit oversold here and the 107 mark is about the 68% fib of the March07-Nov07 decline.

I'm also keeping an eye on the daily as we do have a bit of an uptrend going...but as long as the 107 top stays in place, I think we should at least see a good 100-120pip move downwards to the 105.5 level.

I will look to close this position early if we get a daily close over the 107. level.

Pictured is the daily & hourly.  Unfortunately, this is more of an hourly play but using the fact that the daily hasn't closed above the 107 level.  Usually, I would rather have the entire play based on daily charting and only use the hourly for specific entry/exit...but for this trade, the hourly charts will be more involved.

USD/CAD short stopped out at breakeven. This was a pretty small position so I wasn't looking to take 1/2 profits until we were real close to the T/P.

I will take another look at the charts and will be ready to re-enter, this time with a full size position. I need to verifiy that I'm still seeing the setup I want.

P/L Updated

*I'm a little late on updating from last week's gap losses, my apologies. We're up +5.6% for the year.

Stops moved to breakeven. We're +120 pips or so on this, need 105.5 & 105.5 to break. T/P moved up a bit to 104.7.

+100pips on USD/CAD, keeping it rolling

Sunday Gaps - 9/7/2008

I'm going to pass on today's gaps as we have the Fannie+Freddie bailout and I'm concerned that any "gap" moves may very well be justified and it's best to stay out of that action.

Sitting at +51 pips going into the weekend.  We'll see what next week brings.

Looking forward to Sunday gaps...lesson learned from last week's failed attempt at the GBP.  I'll try to recap more on that and go over the signals I didn't see/ignored.

Good afternoon.

USD/CAD follow-up

+40-45 pips right now. I'll look to move stops to break even if we can get a break of 106.

I'm not worried about holding this into the weekend

Short USD/CAD @ 106.80

Wide s/l, above the weekly high, looking to see some good retrace lower to 104 or below.  If we get a daily close above 107, I will look to close the position early.

Fundies are on my side with US having a worse than expected NFP and CAD's employment report being better...

Good morning :)