Slept through the uk market, missed my 1.34 short on the eur/usd.
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Thursday, April 30, 2009
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
I'm in short eur/usd full size scaled from 1.33 to 1.3315, stops just above 1.3345, playing the general 1.33 resistance and the downward trend line.
Taking a bit of a gamble as I'm keeping the trade on during the fomc which is due in an hour.
Closed an earlier eur/usd short for -20 on a half size position and closed a usd/long for +10 on a half size position.
Got scared out of my planned g/u short this morning at 1.4775 and never took the trade that went on to yield 75+ points. Disappointing.
I will reshort the eur/usd at 1.34 resistance if we blow through the 1.33
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Tuesday, April 28, 2009
FYI -
I'm going to be experimenting with a couple different blog layouts over the next few hours...apologies if (when) I incorrectly drop code :)
Shorted the eur/usd with a full size position at 1.3080, closing 1/2 position at +20 and moving stops to +1 on the remaining. Stopout occured shortly afterwards.
Not sure what's going on with the pair overall, hence the tightened stops. Will try and take another look later this morning. I apologize for not posting before hand but I just got the charts opened and took the trade right as we hit the level, no time to post. 1.308-1.3115 has been my level the last couple of weeks though, should have been no surprise :)
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Monday, April 27, 2009
Sunday, April 26, 2009
USD/CHF is working along with the early EUR/USD weakness...but we do need a full breakdown to make this work. A down day in equities tomorrow would be nice :)
Little to no gaps that I'm interested in.
The EUR/USD may be due for a bounce off the 1.31 price area and I may watch this during the UK session tonight.
Being Harry Hindsight for a minute, the G/U produced an awesome opportunity to short at the 1.4775 resistance on Friday. I may have been sulking still from my losses earlier and missed it, I don't recall...anyway, just something that I should have caught.
Looking for further USD strength, my watch zone on the GBP/USD is at 1.44 for longs.
All of this being said, I can definitely understand the EUR/USD wanting to test up to 1.34 (which would make for a gorgeous short) and the USD/CAD down to 1.20 before moving back up. We'll see what happens over the UK session tonight and with equities tomorrow morning. USD/CHF long will stay on with stops in place...I'm really looking for 200 points on this one, 150 min.
Real quick, showing the 1.31 support area, also the 50% fib, in anticipation of a bounce on the EUR/USD.
Little to no gaps that I'm interested in.
The EUR/USD may be due for a bounce off the 1.31 price area and I may watch this during the UK session tonight.
Being Harry Hindsight for a minute, the G/U produced an awesome opportunity to short at the 1.4775 resistance on Friday. I may have been sulking still from my losses earlier and missed it, I don't recall...anyway, just something that I should have caught.
Looking for further USD strength, my watch zone on the GBP/USD is at 1.44 for longs.
All of this being said, I can definitely understand the EUR/USD wanting to test up to 1.34 (which would make for a gorgeous short) and the USD/CAD down to 1.20 before moving back up. We'll see what happens over the UK session tonight and with equities tomorrow morning. USD/CHF long will stay on with stops in place...I'm really looking for 200 points on this one, 150 min.
Real quick, showing the 1.31 support area, also the 50% fib, in anticipation of a bounce on the EUR/USD.
Friday, April 24, 2009
Usd/chf was stopped out early this morning for -50.
Rough week, I'm back at -13.5perc.
Missed the eur/usd levels that I outlined yesterday, looks like they were good for a nice reaction.
I'm looking forward to sunday gaps, looking for some move up on the eur. To short into resistance. We'll see.
I came very close to closing the gap in my balance this week but was unable to hold trades to the tp....unfortunate. Let's do it better next week.
Have a good weekend :)
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Thursday, April 23, 2009
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
What I'm watching this morning...
EUR/USD is the only thing that has my attention this morning, looking for a short around the 1.31-1.314 resistance (also 38-50% fibs).
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
USD/CAD short update
I once again pulled out early on a quality trade, cutting the usd/cad short for 60-100points on several scaled positions, leaving another 80 on the table and likely much more.
Yesterday's GBP/USD trade was stopped out just 10points before the reversal that yielded some 200points as of this morning. Very frustrating....yet also motivating in that my trade areas are just about spot on. I'm getting it....just need to continue applying PROPER trade sizes (ie full size).
Watchlist today is a GU short at 14775 and/or EU at 131.
Ending balance is -12percent as of 4/21/09. Ill update the PnL on the right later tonight.
:)
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Monday, April 20, 2009
Long GBP/USD
@ 1.46, half size position, trying to get some movement up.
Stops below 1.4565, not looking to add...just move. Get stops to B/E after we get some room, looking for a reversal candle here over the next 20mins
Stops below 1.4565, not looking to add...just move. Get stops to B/E after we get some room, looking for a reversal candle here over the next 20mins
Sunday, April 19, 2009
GBP/USD falling nicely
Just 15 minutes from UK market open, we're seeing some nice dumping on the pound, coming towards my buy range at 1.46
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Charts of what I'm watching
USD/CAD, shorts around 1.22
EUR/USD, shorts around 1.31
GBP/USD, longs around 1.46
EUR/USD, shorts around 1.31
GBP/USD, longs around 1.46
Also keeping an eye on USD/CAD....
I had looked at trying to get short at 1.22 last week, working with the recent downtrend...price is coming up to that point now. May scale some tiny positions in and go from there...
Watchlist...
...EUR/USD short at 1.31
G/U looks like a nice long at 1.46, if we can make it down there.
G/U looks like a nice long at 1.46, if we can make it down there.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Currently short GBP/USD @ 1.4895, Review of the days trades
I'm looking to see some retrace on the GBP/USD UK session...not sure if I would like to add if we push further upwards.
I did trade the GBP/USD earlier today but at a better level, shorting a 1/4 position at 1.494, looking to scale in up to 1.495-1.5. Price quickly reacted lower and I closed soon for +40points.
I did trade the GBP/USD earlier today but at a better level, shorting a 1/4 position at 1.494, looking to scale in up to 1.495-1.5. Price quickly reacted lower and I closed soon for +40points.
Monday, April 13, 2009
Watching GBP/USD...
...1.5 level.
I'm unsure what I think about it...I feel it's not all that strong right now. Ideally, I'd like to scale in shorts around 1.495 on up to 1.5 but after the roller coaster this morning on the EUR/USD, I'm feeling a little more risk adverse.
We'll see and watching price action as it approaches the level. A small position wouldn't hurt but as for really scaling in, I think I'll hold off for a level that I feel more comfortable with.
I'm unsure what I think about it...I feel it's not all that strong right now. Ideally, I'd like to scale in shorts around 1.495 on up to 1.5 but after the roller coaster this morning on the EUR/USD, I'm feeling a little more risk adverse.
We'll see and watching price action as it approaches the level. A small position wouldn't hurt but as for really scaling in, I think I'll hold off for a level that I feel more comfortable with.
EUR/USD & AUD/USD Action
I shorted the EUR/USD this morning on the first move up above 1.33 for +40. Began scaling in again around 1.333-1.334 in anticipation of the original expected bounce at the 50% fib but price blew through to 1.338. I reduced my initial short (closed at BE) and added an additional short up at 1.338. Closed all positions just a few minutes ago with the drop back down to 1.3335 for a small gain.
My thinking was to continue scaling in for a bounce at the 68% or 1.34-1.3415 but I will instead try and play that bounce directly tonight/tomorrow. 1.35 corresponds with the overall trend down and I wouldn't mind scaling up to that price range for the eventual long haul back to 1.31
I'm also in with a tiny short on the AUD/USD, trying to pick up 80-100 points on a bounce from .73 (previous resistance high). R:R looks too good to pass up yet since I don't often trade this pair, I'm keeping the position size tiny.
Some screenshots below show what I'm looking for...
EUR/USD:
AUD/USD:
My thinking was to continue scaling in for a bounce at the 68% or 1.34-1.3415 but I will instead try and play that bounce directly tonight/tomorrow. 1.35 corresponds with the overall trend down and I wouldn't mind scaling up to that price range for the eventual long haul back to 1.31
I'm also in with a tiny short on the AUD/USD, trying to pick up 80-100 points on a bounce from .73 (previous resistance high). R:R looks too good to pass up yet since I don't often trade this pair, I'm keeping the position size tiny.
Some screenshots below show what I'm looking for...
EUR/USD:
AUD/USD:
Sunday, April 12, 2009
Thursday, April 9, 2009
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
EUR/USD on the watchlist for tonight...
...about the same levels as yesterday but I would like to see some continued EUR strength in order to short at the resistance range in the 1.333-1.3365 range. In addition, 1.3365 is the 50% retracement of the recent decline and as we've recently broken the uptrend, the 1.3365 price gives the EUR a chance to come back up and retest the bottom side of that old trend line before heading back down.
Chart below showing the levels...
What do you think?
Chart below showing the levels...
What do you think?
April 7 action with EUR/USD & GBP/USD
I was up late last night, trying to catch bounces off support on the EUR/USD but ended up closing at breakeven for the night, only to see it rocket off support two hours later.
I had also shorted some GBP/USD yesterday morning yet again cut out early for a tiny gain.
I've had some trouble holding on to trades the last week, even though most of my calls have been spot on. Irritating and I look forward to getting over this. I'm trying to pick up my trade size as been trading a lot of 1/4 size positions, need to go 1/2 - full.
I had also shorted some GBP/USD yesterday morning yet again cut out early for a tiny gain.
I've had some trouble holding on to trades the last week, even though most of my calls have been spot on. Irritating and I look forward to getting over this. I'm trying to pick up my trade size as been trading a lot of 1/4 size positions, need to go 1/2 - full.
Monday, April 6, 2009
Last 24 hours...
...Went long USD/CAD @ 1.2232 (playing heavy 1.22 support) only to close for +7points, looking for a better entry. Would never get the chance as price soon moved quickly upwards to the tune of nearly 300points.
Screenshot below showing what I was going for...
Scaled into EUR/USD longs this morning on two difference occasions, keeping stops tight (moving to +1 after +15) and was stopped out on both tries for the +1. Price did move upwards towards the end of the session but I was unwilling to accept prolonged risk. No worries.
And last but not least, the forgotten limit order!! Ugh! Left a 1/4 sized limit long on the EUR/USD with a 40p stop, absolutely forgot to cancel it after the NYC session. Come Japan's session, the EUR fell sharply, hitting my order and stopping it out subsequently. .5% of the account gone thanks to a stupid mistake. It won't be the last time, I'm sure...stops were in place and it was a small position, but...I now have a daily reminder set on my blackberry to check for any remaining limits.
Ending back at -10% for the day.
Right now, the EUR/USD & GBP/USD are setting up for moves, I'm just not sure where...EUR/USD is my favorite right now as it seems to have the most defined S&R levels for longing/shorts. Screenshot below of what I'm watching. I'd really like to see US equities continue a rally tomorrow so that the EUR/USD can head on up to 1.375 which is the most ideal short.
Screenshot below showing what I was going for...
Scaled into EUR/USD longs this morning on two difference occasions, keeping stops tight (moving to +1 after +15) and was stopped out on both tries for the +1. Price did move upwards towards the end of the session but I was unwilling to accept prolonged risk. No worries.
And last but not least, the forgotten limit order!! Ugh! Left a 1/4 sized limit long on the EUR/USD with a 40p stop, absolutely forgot to cancel it after the NYC session. Come Japan's session, the EUR fell sharply, hitting my order and stopping it out subsequently. .5% of the account gone thanks to a stupid mistake. It won't be the last time, I'm sure...stops were in place and it was a small position, but...I now have a daily reminder set on my blackberry to check for any remaining limits.
Ending back at -10% for the day.
Right now, the EUR/USD & GBP/USD are setting up for moves, I'm just not sure where...EUR/USD is my favorite right now as it seems to have the most defined S&R levels for longing/shorts. Screenshot below of what I'm watching. I'd really like to see US equities continue a rally tomorrow so that the EUR/USD can head on up to 1.375 which is the most ideal short.
Sunday, April 5, 2009
Watchlist for the week of April 5 2009
Watching for...
EUR/USD Shorts around 1.375
And G/U Shorts around 1.5
EUR/USD Shorts around 1.375
And G/U Shorts around 1.5
Shorted the EUR/USD & GBP/USD Gaps
For +22 on each, didn't wait for them to close, just a nice movement downwards before shutting the trade down.
I was able to get some of this captured with Camtasia and will post the link up as soon as it's uploaded.
Be sure to watch it in High Def (HD) - finally figured how to upload it as such.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eStAbwss_Ds
I was able to get some of this captured with Camtasia and will post the link up as soon as it's uploaded.
Be sure to watch it in High Def (HD) - finally figured how to upload it as such.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eStAbwss_Ds
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