...this is the setup I'm watching. Looking to see a break below and trend (down) continuation.
5k at the top of the range. Closed 3k early at +22, stops moved to B/E on the remaining 2k, letting it ride to the T/P @ 97.4.
...playing the breakout. Saw a decent 35-40point move out but it soon failed and came back down to the break point. I got out with a couple of points....was looking to see it bust 98 and head higher but not yet.
Looks like we're ready to breakout on the EUR/USD...I'll be watching for a small possible breakout play.
Closed for -15 points, P&L updated.
I need to step away for a bit...I really want to trade and prove myself on this new account but with the crap going on in the markets these days, it's not my time to trade. I'm not used to these crazy moves, non-trending, etc. and I need to stay out...and get off these damn 15 & 60 minute charts.
Ughh...
Also, a huge mistake that I've made over the last couple of weeks was trading full 5k lots instead of (5) 1k lots, so that I could at least scale out of half of position when in profit. Several times have I been 50-100+ points and simply moved stops to breakeven, instead of taking half profit and then moving stops. Lesson learned.
Good night :)
Above gives a breakdown of Thursday-Friday's action on the EUR/USD and how my short, based on the break of channel, played out.
Below, I'm taking a quick look at the fib levels from the top of the (now broken) channel and the recent lows. After making the new lows, the pair retraced back to the 38% level and stopped. This level will be a good one to keep an eye on as price may continue lower to retest/make new lows or break through the 38% and see some serious retrace upwards.
Have a good weekend.
Stops were moved to breakeven on the EUR/USD short...+75pips, seeing some retrace now but it has thus far stopped at the 1.355 level.
As far as T/P and with the trade only being a single 5k lot, I will likely try and hold on for a push to new lows. It's risk free and while I would like to take quick profits and regain at least some of today's earlier losses, I'll hold on to this. Further USD bull pushing + EUR weakness could prop up an easy couple hundred points, if not more.
Funny how a 1.35 EUR to USD would have seemed so hard to believe just a few months ago...
Alrighty, lets get up to date here...
Certainly not a fun day and I'm reviewing my actions & entries from earlier...I think some of the re-entry moves were certainly premature but on target with what I perceived to be the overall trend at the time. Most important, risk/reward was set and my stops were in place to prevent further risk.
I must say that I'm most proud of myself with the reverse move today, as this is something I generally don't do, think of, etc. Usually, after a losing trade, I simply get out of the market completely, close the trading station and review it later. Today, I had identified what I thoguht was a trend (and it was!) on the EUR/USD hourly and I proceeded to trade it long, based on a trend line. As the trend line broke down, it identified support (1.36). On the break of that support, in concurance of the bounce off the 23% fib (latest decline as seen on the EUR/USD daily) earlier, I went short.
Anyway, identifying this trend breakdown and being able to immediately switch views and trade as such is an accomplishment for me. Often times, I won't let go of a trade plan/idea, even if it clearly is still not valid...and even if I do let it go, I won't take the time to look at the other end of the trade to inspect any possible setups.
On the EUR/USD, we're seeing some movement downward and as long as price stays below 1.36, I'm not too worried. In the coming Friday session, I would like to see it continue downward to make new lows.
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[URL=http://g.imageshack.us/img171/eur2qk8.jpg/1/][IMG]http://img171.imageshack.us/img171/eur2qk8.jpg/1/w1130.png[/IMG][/URL]
So much for the EUR/GBP respecting that 78 mark...blew right through it and looks as if it wants to return to the old range. Oh well.
The USD/CAD too...wow. I'm waiting for a retrace but likely won't play it. Calling a top without notable resistance isn't my idea of a good trade.
On the sidelines...still.
The EUR/GBP break has my attention right now as it has broken the range, came back up and tested the bottom of the broken range and retreated back down. I'm now looking for some downward movement from this pair...
Above I show the bounce off the old range bottom and my expected direction of the pair.
I'm still keeping an eye on the USD/CAD, watching the range that we have going on. A short at the price right now (108.75) sounds ideal, especially with it possibly bouncing off the August 07 spike high of 108.75...but it looks like the pair has broken the 68% fib level from the long term decline and I'm worried about a breakout to the North, above 109.
I'm not seeing much on the EUR/USD or GBP/USD. I see a double bottom coming up on the GBP/USD at 1.75...a break of this low point will obviously lead to lower action. I'll keep watching this...
The EUR/GBP had a break below it's longterm range...I'll also keep this pair on my radar.
Today I begin trading...errr begin being ready to trade a new account.
Starting balance is $3,000 USD and I'm shooting for a 5% gain by 12/31/08 (Profit of $150USD)
I'll update as often as possible with account screenshots, showing the most up to date balance, trades, etc.
We'll get it started off right with a screenshot of the virgin account right now...sitting nicely at $3k.
The market is still nuts right now but there may be some trade ops in the coming week as the passed bailout settles in. Until then, it's on the bench for me!
***Previous profits from 2/22/08-10/1/08 = +6.65% gains***
