Just sitting back for now, waiting for something to catch my eye.
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
Going over the USD/CAD trade...
Going over a bit more of last night's trade...
The good: 107 resistance held, as I expected.
The bad: I probably didn't give the trade enough thought before taking it and after looking through a couple of different expectations/views of the pair, the upward moving trendline on the the 3hr hit me in the face.
And while it was still a good range to play, it wasn't the safest at all, especially with all the conditions (USD strength, bullish ascending triangle). Most of all, for the tiny (original) target I had of 120pips or so, the risk was a bit overdone, going 1 for 1.5. It's also important to note that LAST WEEK's USD/CAD short used technicals WITH the fundamentals aligning (poor USD data + good CAD data). And although we did see some downward movement with that news, it still could not break a previous low (105.5) and obviously didn't impact the pair as much as I thought it would. This should have been a big heads up for me helped realistically arrange my T/P from the start...or it should have kept me out of the trade all together.
Regardless, the trade was based on solid resistance in addition to a range, which did hold true. It was a good decision to scale out early as we DID get quite a bounce right off the 106.00-05 price point.
The charting below shows the bullish ascending triangle & range on the daily as well as a close-up of the range on the one hour, showing my (damn near perfect... or fortunate) entry & exit.
The good: 107 resistance held, as I expected.
The bad: I probably didn't give the trade enough thought before taking it and after looking through a couple of different expectations/views of the pair, the upward moving trendline on the the 3hr hit me in the face.
And while it was still a good range to play, it wasn't the safest at all, especially with all the conditions (USD strength, bullish ascending triangle). Most of all, for the tiny (original) target I had of 120pips or so, the risk was a bit overdone, going 1 for 1.5. It's also important to note that LAST WEEK's USD/CAD short used technicals WITH the fundamentals aligning (poor USD data + good CAD data). And although we did see some downward movement with that news, it still could not break a previous low (105.5) and obviously didn't impact the pair as much as I thought it would. This should have been a big heads up for me helped realistically arrange my T/P from the start...or it should have kept me out of the trade all together.
Regardless, the trade was based on solid resistance in addition to a range, which did hold true. It was a good decision to scale out early as we DID get quite a bounce right off the 106.00-05 price point.
The charting below shows the bullish ascending triangle & range on the daily as well as a close-up of the range on the one hour, showing my (damn near perfect... or fortunate) entry & exit.
Good morning :)
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