EUR/USD and USD/CHF Watch List for December 9 2009

Watch list tonight...

EUR/USD for a short 1.48 - 1.485. I'm trying to pay more attention to price action and enter only after the level has been touched and a candle indicates that price is ready to react as I expect.



USD/CHF - same trade as the EUR/USD, looking for a bounce off 1.02



Also, keeping an eye on the USD/CAD for an opportunity to get short... Will need to keep an eye on the EUR/USD for general USD strength as I will want my USD/CAD short to correlate with a EUR retrace.

USD/CHF

Shorted this end of the day Friday, closed this afternoon for +15 points.

End of the week

No new trades. My blackberry was screaming at me this morning as call alert after call akert went off with the employment news. Will start looking for opportunities to buy eur next week, would like to see it a little lower before I start longing. Watching TL for breaks as well...

U/CAD Short Update

I wasn't available to watch the charts when price approached my 1.0535-40 zone but caught it on my blackberry. No entries. Looks like price pushed the 38% price zone up to the 50% price zone where it then reversed, for 60 points.

Right now, I'm keeping an eye on the EUR/USD for a trend line break.

USD/CAD 1.0535 on the watch list...

Watching USD/CAD for a short at 1.0535

Trend (with lower lows), S&R + 38% fib and a sort of inverted H&S formation...kind of :)

GU Longs, EU Shorts

GU longs closed at +5.

EU shorted on TL break, first position at 1.5053 and second position (x2 the first position's size) at 1.5063. Stops at 1.5083, TP 1.5010

Closed first position at +20 and second at +30.

Screenshot below shows what I was looking at when first entering...

GU Trade Update

Closed 1/3 of short at +20.

Remaining 2/3 still on, no SL adjustment yet.

GU short 1.6624

SL 1.6657, TP 1.6545

S&R, TL

USD/CAD Short Update

Closed original short out at +15.

Closed 1/2 of second short at +30.

Remaining 1/2 of second short stopped at BE.

Watching USD/CHF for an opportunity to get short.

Added another U/CAD short @ 1.0445

USD/CHF triangle, looking to get short for USD breakdown

Keeping an eye on USD/CHF for a another opportunity to get short, if we can't break down below this morning. 1.0035-1.005 is what I'm thinking...However, with equities rallying over +100 this morning, I would have expected USD to be tanking and making ways for new lows.

U/CAD stopped for -20, Short 1.0427

Shorted USD/CAD with one small position at 1.0427, stops 1.0477, looking for a nice move down, will continue shorting as we move up.

USD/CAD, long 1.046

Long U/CAD, 1.046, stops 1.044, TP set at 1.0535

TL, S&R and 61% fib from Oct 15 lows to Nov 2 highs.

A break of 1.04 = resumption of downtrend...but I'm not so sure it's ready to do that yet.

RE: Small EU Short

All positions stopped at 1.5027.

Re-entered at 1.5037, closed 2/3 for +16 points, the remaining later being stopped out at 1.5057.

Looking at a small EU short

1.5004, will add up to 1.5018, stops at 1.5027, looking for movement down to lower 1.49 handle.

Playing break of TL, using previous S&R and down day in equities.



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RE: EUR/USD long/short watch.

Longed EU at 1.5045 after a break and retest of previous resistance. Moved stops to BE at +35 and was stopped out at BE a couple of hours later. Looks like we go up in the +40 range but I was looking for a rally continuation, which we did not see. BE, no loss.

EUR/USD, watching for further moves...

Nothing catch my eye right now, only watching the EUR/USD for continued movement upwards of 1.505 or a break of the 1.48 support. Still keeping the TL for the time being...

On the watch for EU longs...

1.452-1.45 or the 50% fib. 61% fib or 1.445 would be great as well.

EUR/USD Short

Got short a little EUR/USD, playing the gap, wide stop, playing a possible H&S if we get up there. Short at 1.472.

My original USD/CAD sell was stopped out for -50. I re-entered, closed for +35. Closed EUR/USD long off 1.463 for +35.

Watch List

USD/CAD 1.11 for a sell, trip top

EUR/USD 1.451-1.45, 50% fib, S&R, 1.445-1.443 is next

USD/CAD Sell 1.09

1.472 short was stopped for -30.

Shorted from 1.475, closed for +25.

Overall, a breakeven week.

Short EUR/USD

1.472, looking to see a large move off this 1.472-3 figure. We spiked through...now just waiting to see this fail.

Stops are tight, just above 1.475 as I want to avoid any large spike outs or breakouts to the north.

Missed

EUR/USD 1.472 (actually only reached about 1.4715) and then missed the bounce at 1.465 twice.

:)

Tried another EUR/USD short

at 1.463, wasn't believing the rally and was looking for further movement downward. Sold right into a solid breakout and was stopped for -25 points.

Not a biggy, now watching 1.472-3 for a nice weekly level short.

E/U short closed for +27

Eur/usd short 1.463, looking for a rangy day and a return back below 1.46. Stops above recent highs of 1.4645
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EUR/USD levels coming up

1.447, 1.44 for longs. 1.447 is 38% fib, 1.44 is 50% fib

However, after touching 1.452, we may continue upwards...

Hit a nice short,

selling into the buyers playing a false breakout on EUR/USD at 1.4606, closed for +20

With UK markets closed and US equities botching around, I don't think the EUR/USD is going to make a full breakout in today's session.

This trade should continue downward from here, awaiting UK session for direction.

Missed my USD/CAD

watch around 108.7, 50% fib and previous S&R. Looks good for at least 60 points so far this morning.

Closed my USD/CHF short for +40.

Right now, I'm waiting for direction. Looks like chop for the most part. Will be looking for levels that may setup tonight during the UK session.

Longed USD/CHF 104.15, watching EUR/USD 146.3

USD/CHF is at weekly support @ 1.14-1.135.

EUR/USD is coming into a resistance range. I have 1.463 marked as 61% fib and an S&R point on the weekly charts. Price may reverse now or keep moving up a little above the number before reversing. I'm long on USD/CHF now and stops are wide enough to allow some volatility...EUR/USD I'll remain patient on in case we get a higher move and will then short accordingly.

Things are shaping up...

...I look forward to posting regularly again sometime soon.

For some quality reading in the mean time, check out this trader's blog:

http://interceptorfx.blog.co.uk/

Interceptor, a member of the forums at www.forexfactory.com, trades in similar fashion to me (S&R). He uses wider stops than I typically do but his trades are spot on.

I'm taking some time off

from blogging. Need to work some things out with my trading and posting here does not help, at this point.

I'm coming in at about -21% since October 2008.

Rough night

Shorted usd/chf a little early @ 107.85, stopped for -30 on x2 full size. Shorted usd/cad at 1.1055, moved stops to allow for move up to daily resist at 11120, closed at -25.

It was disappointing to see my 108 usd chf level/ 141 eur usd level busted. If I had been paying attention, usdchf 10830 would have been the next short but that didn't happen.

Usd/jpy 94 is next.

Frustrated....not to give up but I'm in a sort of shock, not sure what to do...

:/
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Watch list for this week

EUR/USD long 1.41, short 1.425

USD/CHF short 1.08

USD/JPY long 94.

usd/cad short 1.1075 and 1.1115

USD/CAD Watch, same old for EUR/USD & USD/CHF

I apologize for the lack of updates. No trades this week, however we saw an excellent opportunity that I called (but missed!) this morning on the USD/CHF coming down to 1.0735 and bouncing for a good 30 points before FOMC news took it even higher.

EUR/USD 1.43 short is still on the horizon as is a USD/CHF 1.093-35

USD/CAD is the new one on my list, watching for a bounce at 1.08. Previous S&R and 61% fib.

Charts for EU and U/CHF levels

eu below



u/chf below

I took a quick scalp off the 1.4153 bounce for 5 points. Seeing some nice levels below if we can make it down there.
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Watch list for this week

Keeping an eye on the EUR/USD, 1.43 level for a short. USD/CHF 107.33 another level for a long bounce.

I did get in three trades last Friday, two of which were losers. One trade had no market consensus, the other I was stopped out by 1point before price moved right up to my TP. I'll go over these later.

Eur usd 1.42 and usd chf 108
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The nfp this morning isn't doing anything for me. Still no trades this week.
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Reminder to link up twitter feed to this blog later...

Still watching eur/usd and usd/chf

For my entry, as posted on tuesday. With the eur/usd 1.4307 long, I may have to enter first with a half size position, to allow for stops below support at 1.428

There is an entire range of support here, so wider stops (thus lower trade size) may be used.

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EUR/USD and USD/CHF watch list, charts

A couple of different options on the EUR/USD right now. Either we see the retrace now and play the subsequent bounce or we move higher, looking to short at previous daily/weekly/monthly S&R at 1.4575.

Below is my first bounce area in case we see a retrace from current levels. Would look to long around 1.43. Some fib confluence just below.



Below is the alternative, a short around 1.4575. A close up follows the bigger view...



Close up below...



And of course I'm also watching the linked USD/CHF, which can sometimes provide a cleaner level. We have a picture perfect short level around 1.0730...but we have to get there first Chart below...

EUR/USD, watching for shorts at 1.4575

monthly level.

Otherwise, waiting for the retrace to get on some 50 and 61% S&R levels.

Watch list...

EUR/USD longs at 1.416, 50% fib and previous S&R

also

1.412 is next, 61% fib



USD/CHF shorts at 108., 61% fib

End the week at -14.4 perc.

A little bummed but I've handled the losses well. Have a good weekend all.
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Left a limit sell in place at 1.42 eur/usd

and was stopped out for -25 on x2 full size. An accident and it sucks.

Sorry for the late update,

EUR/USD long from 1.4019 was closed for +25 on x2 full size.

Watching today, not seeing much...eye on 1.412 EUR/USD for a short. 1.419 also looks nice.

A good read...

"LOSING MONEY TRADING FX (AND A SIMPLE SOLUTION)

by Steve W. on 10/20/2008 01:54:00 AM EST

We all know the statistic, and it’s not a pretty one. According to CRB, “Ninety-two percent of day traders trying to scalp lose money. Only eight percent are successful. Out of the eight percent, only two percent of the day trading public makes money on a consistent basis.” Why then, when these numbers are so widely publicized, would so many newer traders come into the market each and every day and try to earn a killing? It’s simple: economics. The majority of the human population is economically driven, and there’s no justice to go into the reasons as to why. It’s why lottery games where individuals have a 1 in 47 million chance of winning keep getting millions upon millions of people trying twice a week to hit the jackpot. People want money, and they want it now."

Read the rest below...

http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2008/10/you-lose-money-trading-fx.html

Next levels to watch...

EUR/USD short at 1.4120

USD/CHF long 107.85

Long EUR/USD 1.4019

Playing 61% fib and previous S&R. We came 4points from my TP at 1.4049 but did not take it out. We've now ranged down to 1.40...I'm holding this trade as it's a significant level and should provide a more meaningful reaction.

I will accept the loss in stride and move on to the next one if we can't make this happen.

1.407 long stopped out for -25 on x2 full size

Eur/usd long 1.407

And were just a few points away from my stop with price at 1.405....I'm a little frustrated with it. Strong level and I would have liked to have seen a move already.

Missed my usd/chf call alert/trade this morning, slept through it. I don't want to talk any more about that....hurts to see a well marked out level miss beacuse of sleep.
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Watching for a EUR/USD sell at 1.422

Previous support and 50% fib of the recent dump.

Looking back on this morning's EUR/USD long...

it looks that while 141.7 may have originally been nice area for a bounce, the earlier spike down to 141.82 should have been a red flag to my area. Nonetheless, it I'm not ruling this out as a poor trade but I should have been on the watch for the next up and coming level, at 1.414, which indeed provided the bounce I was looking for 30 points up @ 1.417.

Err, usd/chf next up
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Eur/usd long stopped out for -25 on x2 full size, longing 1.417.

1.407 is next on the list
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Eur/usd long watch around 141.70-60

No fib agreement but previous s'n'r
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For next week, 108.2 USD/CHF for a short

Watching USD/CAD 108.

Really want to see an entry around 107.8...may have missed this one.

UJ closed for 40points on x1 full size

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UJ short +30, stops to be

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I almost want to apologize for taking this trade..

..as it's not a straight S&R and more of a trend trade. I've said no more of these...but this one I am taking. Trend, resistance @ 95. and 50% fib. Taken as a x1 full size trade with a 30 point stop, t/p 60 points.



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...and it's SO tempting to play this pullback on the

EUR/USD in expectation of continued movement up. However, I'll be sticking to the plan and waiting for the next S&R to come up.

Nothing yet this week, tight range continues

And although we're due for a breakout soon, that breakout may be very violent and some levels may be negated. We don't want to be stepping in front of any trains :)

USD/CHF 108.-108.2, 61% fib

Another one to keep an eye on...getting call alerts set now.

Watching EUR/USD 1.405 tonight.

USD/CHF Short Level, 107.4-5

38% Fib and some previous S&R. This is a B trade but certainly not a bad one. Will keep an eye on it as it should correlate with a 1.405 level on the EUR/USD...I think.



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Watch list July 20-24, EUR/USD longs

Watching EUR/USD, for a bounce around 1.415. 1.405 is next if that doesn't fly.

I'm going to hold off on any eur/usd tonight

but USD/CHF looks to be setting up for a decent short around 108, previous support & 38% fib retracement of today's dump.

Now that we've finally had some movement...

I'm plotting out the EUR/USD, may look into something around the 61% fib retracement around 1.40

Watching EUR/USD 1.407 for a long bounce

If we can see a continued upwards movement on the EUR/USD, 1.407 may be a nice place to long for a bounce/continuation of the move up. However, I would really like to see a good 80-100 point move up and then retrace...the EUR needs to continue up to validate this.



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USD/CAD Watching

61.8% fib coming up @ 1.1145, some previous daily resistance in the area...I'm really looking for a bargain price here. Not liking the resistance as a whole, no clean match. It may be worth waiting this one out, and short the retrace when it comes. Watching for now

Usd/chf closed for +25 on x2full size
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Long usd/chf 107.45

Daily support, stops at 107.24. Could not ignore this trade, thought about it calmly....but I need to take it.
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Still watching nothing, giving this market room to breath...

We're seeing some bull EUR/USD action which I look to see continue. The pair has been in a tight range lately and will need to relieve the pressure by going one way or another. I don't want to be stepping in front of any trains and after the tight range we've seen the last couple of weeks, those trains will be moving fast. USD/CAD does have some more levels coming up below 1.12 but I'll likely stay out of those. Nothing looks clear right now.

Back to the waiting game :)

Nothing on the radar tonight...

...and likely not much for tomorrow unless we see some major moves during the UK session. Patience. We'll break out of this range soon and have some levels available.

:)

FEAR strikes again

USD/CAD moved up as expected. My b/e close worked out to be at +5 points. Pure and simple fear exit. Yuck.

Longed USD/CAD 1.1355

Closed @ b/e

It's a slow night on the EUR/USD front...

..however, USD/CAD is hinting at a couple of opportunities.

Forget 1.1475 that was posted earlier, that figure is now out of the window.

We have a stronger previous S&R figure @ 1.145. No fib confluence.

Next, we have 1.135, which does work with a 38% fib retracement.

See attachment below.

Usd/cad long watch 1.1475
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Looks like I'll be playing the waiting game

I'm not seeing anything worthy over the last 8 hours and we're really going to need some movement. Efore any of my watch levels are hit. The eur/usd and usd/chf are really the only two pairs that provide any sort of clean setups that I feel comfortable with. I'll be patient and wait it out...I only need a couple of quality trades a week.

Good morning :)
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Browsing now for setups for the week of July 13-17

EUR/USD is first up, watching for a long opportunity at 1.3825 & 1.374-5.

1.3825 is the weakest figure as we just saw a bounce last week. 1.374-5 is the preferred area to long, anticipating a meaningful move. See below.



USD/CHF is next up, watching for a long bounce around 106.5-3.

See below.



That's all for now.

I did long eur/usd at 1.40, saw a dump below and then closed at breakeven as we reapproached 1.40. Stops were in line at 1.3975 but were not tagged.
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E/U long watch 1.4

This market keeps moving...

...and drawing me back in, ready to short the next bounce zone.

Watching EUR/USD around 1.41...a whole mess of resistance. 1.415 is a cleaner area as it's a daily level and spike high. I may forget about 1.41 and just keep an eye in case 1.415 comes along.

Missed the EUR/USD spike...

by the time I got the call alert, price had already nicked 1.4049-50 and retraced 10pts. Looks good for 25 points thus far.

EUR/USD, watching for short at 1.405

Doubt we'll get there but if we see an equities rally, this looks like a nice area for a short.

EUR/USD TP hit for +25 on x2 full size.

Taking Setup, Short x2 full size EUR/USD 1.3998

USD/CHF 108. looks stronger :) 61% fib, long bounce

USD/CHF long @ 1.0820 range is another idea on the books...

...this level looks like it may coincide with a 1.40 short. Just another idea and more ammunition to see USD bulls power back for a bit around this price level. Also 50% fib retracement.

Dave on the No Brainer Trades chat brought this up about an hour ago.

Official setup, EUR/USD sell 1.40

Entry will be made a few points shy of 1.40, likely 1.3995, stops at 1.425, t/p around 25 points or equal to risk. Chart referenced in previous post below.

Going into the London session...

...I'm really not seeing any defined levels to short the EUR or GBP from. There are small pockets of resistance around 1.394-5 and G/Y 1.614-5 but nothing that stands out as a reliable trade.

Looking further ahead, I will short the EUR/USD at 1.40. 50% fib of the recent decline is at 1.4014 and I would expect a respectable kickback around that level, especially with 1.4 being such a strong support level before.

Chart below...

"Depending on price action"

Regardless of it's validity, I'm sick of hearing this.

Some thought into keeping my weekly trade plans/setups...

...specific, controlled and tracked.

For example:

Setup 1 for this week is long E/U @ x

Setup 2 for this week is short G/U @ x

Setup 3 for this week is...

from there, I will track each trade...if I took it, the gain and loss, if I didn't take it, what would have been the gain/loss based on the proposed sl & tp.

out for coffee, more later...uk opens in two hours.

Call alert set for EUR/USD 1.3930 for short in 1.394-5 range

EUR/USD, watching 1.3785 - 38% fib agreement

Watching 1.38...just below it looks like a nice entry and we have the 38% fib level coming into play from april lows to june highs. I don't like how we just saw a nice 40 pont bounce off 1.383...but if I can score a lower 1.37 entry (1.379 or 85), it looks like it would be worth the trade.

Three weeks ago, I would take it with a half or full size trade and scale into the heavy support that we have just a little lower around 1.375...but here, I think I'll keep my stops tight and look to re-enter immediately if we blow 1.3785.

See chart below as to what I'm looking at on the daily...



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Had an entry limit for eur/usd 1.383, missed by two points.

On to 1.3745
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Had an entry limit for eur/usd 1.383, missed by two points.

On to 1.3745
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Eur/usd long closed for +20
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Long EUR/USD 1.3882

Stops @ 1.3855, TP 1.3925 x2 full size

If we see further eur/usd weakness/new lows, 1.3925 may be a short line
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Gu 163.25 for a short
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usd/cad 1.145-1.147 ?

EUR/USD long 1.3825 & 1.3745, I'm not seeing any shorts that really stand out.

For a bearish USD trade, I have a PICTURE perfect GBP/USD setup at 1.6420-30. Previous S&R and the 50% fib of the recent decline.

That's all for now. USD/CAD is still on the table but I'm really not liking how large that range of resistance (1.175-1.185) is. I'm looking to redfine my risk to keep my stoploss in the 30-40point range tops, in order to continue trading x2 full size.

Missed my EUR/USD short by 2points.

Add 108.3 USD/CHF on watch for long

Stopped for -15 on x2 full suze. Watching for 1.40 short
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Short x2 full size eur/usd 1.395
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Now watching eur usd 139.5 for a short. Will short again 140 or long 138.25
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Closed eur/usd long for +30 on x2 full size. Longed off 139. Support
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Got absolutely killed

longing gbp/usd a few minutes ago at the 1.62 support, out for -50 on x2 full size and another -20 and another -15 on the same size, attempting to revenge trade and then closing it down seconds after opening. That will put me down a good -4 to -5% to start the week.

More levels coming up on EUR/USD, watching. I truly believe GBP/USD is a total fake out just like last time when it blew the 1.66 top...but we'll see what happens. Hard stuff.

1.389 EUR/USD, will be getting in with x2 size.

PnL Updated, watch list for this week...

Down 2.5% from the previous week, ending at -10.5% since October 2008.

My downfall was again taking trades where I "thought" price was ready to come down. I need to stick to what works, trading purely S&R.

On the watch list for this week...

EUR/USD long at 1.3825-1.38, 1.3725-1.375

USD/CAD short at 1.175-1.185. A large range but one that should provide a meaningful bounce.

USD/CHF short 1.10 or long 106.

GBP/USD long 1.62

That's all for now...USD/JPY may provide a bounce around 95. or again at 97 but the levels aren't as strong as I would prefer.

USD/CHF stopped at breakeven

USD/CHF Follow-up...

I've moved stops to breakeven...with the time of day, no Asian markets open yet, I'll protect capital and be patient for now. Now that we've had a move, we're surrounded by great levels on the EUR/USD (short at 1.40 or long at 1.38, 1.375, etc) and there are sure to be some opportunities tonight and possibly tomorrow morning through the US session.

I'll edit this post when I'm either stopped out, which I would believe is coming soon.

Short USD/CHF full size 108.9 - 61% fib and resistance

Looking to see it drift lower as we hit the Asian session. EUR/USD coming down nicely to some support levels that should help coincide with a bounce.



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I longed EUR/USD a second time, moved stops to B/E...

...and was taken out, just by a point before moving up and making hourly highs. I'll Be interested to see if it continues up as expected...it should, this 1.40 support provided quite a bounce last time around and I would expect to see at least 40-60 points out of this.

EUR/USD Long off 1.40 closed for +25

Didn't get an entry until 1.4009, actual gains after spread were only +20 on a full size long.

USD/CHF Short Stopped for -60points

on a half size position. Unfortunate but I'm glad that I wasn't awake to add to the position. I guess there just wasn't quite enough market agreement with the 108. figure.

I'm watching the EUR/USD now for a bounce at 1.40 but it doesn't look like it wants to quite get down there yet.

I missed the USD/JPY 97. sell yesterday. I'm irritated about that...I had a call alert set and must have deleted it.

That's all for now. We're still positive for July and I need to be sticking strictly to the S&R trades, trading off the support or resistance line ONLY and not taking the trending, "candles look ready to fall" sort of trades. I pulled hard for 4% of gains over the last few weeks only to piss it away in non-S&R trades in a few days.

I went ahead and shorted USD/CHF at 107.65

with a half size short, candles say this is ready to head lower and we did touch the first bits of resistance. Will look to add if we head higher to 108.

USD/CHF, watching for a sell @ 108 or long bounce @ 106 range

Eur/gbp closed for +25

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EUR/GBP for a short at 85.93, Full Size

Great daily top level and one that should allow me to keep stops fairly close.

Looking for 30-40 points on this. EUR/GBP doesn't have much of a range which means a couple of things: stops don't need to be as wide but as a consequence, the most I could really get out of this is 100-120points and that's pushing it.



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USD/CAD Bounce

I was busy and missed this one, looks good thus far for 30+ points and should be a nice runner for a few more.

USD/JPY TP hit for +25 points on full size position.

This may want to rally harder now but I will do my best to look the other way. There is a mess of resistance above 97. that could push it back down but after this first play, I'll look to hold off.

Watching for USD strength the remainder of the night for a EUR/USD play.

Should USD bulls push through the London session tonight...

...I will be watching EUR/USD around 1.39 for a bounce. Previous S&R in addition to 61% fib from recent highs.

Going over a few awesome, nearly textbook Support & Resistance trades today

First, the USD/CHF around the 109. level. I posted up about this earlier and hopped in for a short with a half size position, closing minutes later for a mere 10 points, thinking it would be driving further up. Unfortunately, I wasn't keeping an eye on the bottoming EUR/USD as it nailed it's own support at 1.40 and as both pairs are USD correlated, they bounced off their respective levels with the EUR/USD nailing it on the dot and USD/CHF coming only a few points short.

Nonethless, the levels were perfect and all worked together wonderfully.

USD/CHF is shown below, 109. working perfectly with a 50% fib retracement from recent move down from 1.1 highs. Very nice.



EUR/USD is next. As posted above, 1.40 was the bounce point and the 38% fib from recent highs was just below that price.



Last but not least is my favorite setup and the one I should have been paying most attention to. GBP/USD, after spiking through the resistance top, had fallen some 300 points and was ready to bounce. A previous S&R location at 1.6425 would provide this along with a perfect 61% fib retracement. Wow. I saw this about 10 minutes after the initial bounce and couldn't believe I had not seen this earlier.



Some prime examples of what I look for :)

And I'm in with a full size short USD/JPY @ 96.92.

No fear, ya :)

I really want some USD strength to come through,

as I have no game plan for any sort of bear USD. The GBP/USD & EUR/USD both have messy tops. USD/CAD does have some support down around 1.145 but it's not the cleanest.

USD/JPY is breaking upwards as I type, going to go watch that right now. Chart attached below.



Charts will be coming later tonight...there were amazing setups (really, all one big USD bull bounce) today that I completely missed. More later.

Sticking to a more original game plan, USD/CHF

shorts on order at 109. Price is hanging around 108.80 right now but I want to see a push up before shorting this thing. Looking to go full size if not x2 full size.

THESE are the trades that I need to wait for. I've been quite anxious the last week and it's going to show when I update the balance (I imagine it's -12/13%). All of that being said, I don't feel too emotionally rocked with the losses, which I'm happy about.

Price is moving lower on the USD/CHF now, may have missed this one.

G/U Shorts closed for average -90points on half size position.

Equities are down nicely with a USD rally but I could not survive the over night spikes of 100+ points above monthly highs.

Long G/U @ 1.65 earlier this morning, half size, stopped out for -50p.

USD/CHF on deck, 106.5 level

Closed USD/JPY early for +10 points.

Frustrated seeing the action two hours after closing.

G/U short still on, added another 1/4 size short at 1.66

GBP/USD Short 1.656 1/4 size

Looking for a move down, nice resistance range here...equities to fall tomorrow?

Small trade, wide stops, looking for 80-100 points. Not sure if I'll add if we move higher, would rather avoid that as it wasn't fun last week with the EUR/USD situation.

Short USD/JPY 106.05

1/2 size trade, looking for a move back down. I like these descending triangle plays and will see if we can get this to head back to test the bottom. Stops above recent highs 106.6

EUR/USD -55 on 1/2 size

USD/CAD for a long bounce 1.145

Short EUR/USD, 1/2 size 1.3995

EUR/USD break below 1.40, watching...possible breakout play

I may play a short EUR/USD on the break below 1.40...it's moving now but I'm trying not to get into the first suckers run. Want to wait for some retrace and then get with the program.

Otherwise, I'm watching for a long bounce around 1.39 for 25-30 points.

:)

Good Sunday Afternoon, Watch list for this week

USD/CAD & USD/JPY, as posted last week (see below).

EUR/USD 1.434

GBP/USD 1.622-4ish...big range in there.

Watchlist for June 25 2009 - July 3 2009, USD/CAD & USD/JPY Shorts

USD/JPY below. 97-97.25 looks like a great short, if we can make it up there.



USD/CAD below. Strong daily level around 1.175-1.18 with the 61% fib hovering just above this level.

The rest of the Wednesday, June 24 2009 trades...

-15 AUD/USD long (x2 full size)
+20 USD/CHF short (x2 full size)
+30 USD/CHF short (1/2 size)
+70 EUR/USD (1/10 size)

Was watching the EUR/USD for a move last night but slept right through it. I'm sorry I didn't get the chart posted before the action but I'll go ahead and post it now as it was generated before the move. Price came up nicely just below my marked level and then fell as expected.



Now watching USD/CAD for 1.18 and USD/JPY for 97. USD/JPY may hit today/this afternoon/tomorrow...

-7.9%

Closed the large EUR/USD positions for +10 and +70. A x2 full size USD/CHF long was stopped for -20.

I have the 1/4 size EUR/USD short on from last week still, stops @ 1.414

FOMC today, not going to be fun.

Interesting day, more to come...

I worked myself into an interesting position today, shorting the eur/usd moves with trade sizes several times my "full trade size". Usually, I risk less than 1percent per trade but today, I was and still am pushing the risk level up above 4 percent.

I'm okay with this. I'm a little further leveraged than I would like to be but I'm sticking to my guns on this one. I have on going shorts scaled from 1.405 to 1.41, targets right now at 1.4025, stops above 1.414.

While this morning was a bit of a headache, taking a 2perc loss on an earlier half size eur/usd short, I'm quite calm and collected now.

I'm sorry I didn't post earlier but I wanted to keep my mind free of doubt, guilt, etc, no matter how deserving.

Today will be turning up the heat on future trades and moving away from the less than 1 perc risk taken on trades. I'm bored with that. I see hardly any reward. I have a 65-75perc batting average with trades and I need to trade a size/risk that reflects such.

More later, good afternoon :)
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

What I'm watching...

EUR/USD for a long 1.374 range:



USD/CHF for a short, 109.55 - 109.85:



It will be key to keep an eye on dollar strength...do not want to get in the front of any trains.