I like the double top on the EUR/USD but don't have the balls to short it. Will look to get long as we approach the support (154, I believe?)...maybe stagger some small longs @ 1.56 and look to get heavy as we come down to support. Targeting at least the resistance line @ 1.58 and may hold on to some for a break above and run up to 160, etc. Not sure. Not a EUR/USD trader but the technicals give me some comfort right now, in addition to my thoughts of further US econ weakness.
And...also looking to get long on the GBP/USD, if we can get a pullback to support (around 198 IMO)...may stagger longs starting at 1985, 198 and perhaps again at 1975...need to look at the charts a bit more to come up with a support figure. But I do believe it's due for some pullback and already this morning it fell below the 199 figure.
Thoughts? I know I'm getting at least a few page views...one coming in from New Zealand. Cool! And speaking of NZ, I know I was talking about setting up a short for the NZD/USD last week...but I was waiting for some more NZD strength to come about to get a nice short entry. Well, I may have missed it early this morning on the run to .765...but it may head back up to about .77 which would be most ideal with the downward trendline. Anyway, I'll keep watching. USD weakness could offer me my ideal price. I'll look more later.
Monday, June 30, 2008
More on Sunday 6/29/08 Gaps
I checked over the major pairs this morning and there really wasn't much. Even the EUR/USD gap that I played probably should have been left alone, as it was pretty small. In the other pairs, it didn't look like anything was more than 15 pips, if that. A lot of smaller 10 pip gaps, all of which closed quickly.
On the EUR/USD gap trade yesterday, the first one was stopped out. The stop was far too close to the entry but my thinking was that if I get stopped, fine, I'll re-enter on the next support @ 75. Well, I was stopped out but due to a random spike, one that didn't even show up on the 5 min chart. So...lesson learned, I went ahead and entered again at about the same price and took some gain on the gap closing a couple of hours later. The problem with trading after the open is the spread is big...I believe it was 8-10 pips last night (Oanda)? So with being stopped out, the loss was around 15 pips. And of course when I took profit, there was only +6 pips. Net is -9 pips.
To sum it up, second chances are hard to get in the gaps and my stop was far too tight. My mentality was not set to accommodate the larger spread. Secondly, if I would have kept the spread in mind, the total possible pips on that gap was less than 15 pips and probably should not have been traded in the first place. Ah well.
Nonetheless, it was good to see the gaps fill, no matter how small they were.
Good morning :)
On the EUR/USD gap trade yesterday, the first one was stopped out. The stop was far too close to the entry but my thinking was that if I get stopped, fine, I'll re-enter on the next support @ 75. Well, I was stopped out but due to a random spike, one that didn't even show up on the 5 min chart. So...lesson learned, I went ahead and entered again at about the same price and took some gain on the gap closing a couple of hours later. The problem with trading after the open is the spread is big...I believe it was 8-10 pips last night (Oanda)? So with being stopped out, the loss was around 15 pips. And of course when I took profit, there was only +6 pips. Net is -9 pips.
To sum it up, second chances are hard to get in the gaps and my stop was far too tight. My mentality was not set to accommodate the larger spread. Secondly, if I would have kept the spread in mind, the total possible pips on that gap was less than 15 pips and probably should not have been traded in the first place. Ah well.
Nonetheless, it was good to see the gaps fill, no matter how small they were.
Good morning :)
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