Trades for last week..

...took an AUD/USD long on the trend line and was stopped out for -85. Scaled in three shorts on the 1.30 bounce with the USD/CAD and closed one at breakeven, another at 30 and another at 60.

Ending balance -6.7%. Keeping an eye on the USD/CAD for a move...not sure what is going on with the EUR and GBP pairs.

Good evening :)

Watch list for the this week...

...I hope everyone had a great Holiday.

Turning to the charts, the USD/CAD has my attention. I've identified support and resistance on the chart below, as well as the short term upward moving trend line. If you take a look at the daily chart, you can clearly see the upward moving trend line that price bounced off last week. I'm open for both a continuation and retest of 1.30 or a break below and dump back to 1.15.

I wouldn't mind shorting a gap up today, as long as the 1.2475/1.25 support is respected. Otherwise, we should be gearing up for some movement in one direction or the other this week.

Thoughts??

As for the EUR/USD, I don't know...I was looking for a breakout last week that didn't happen..and instead, we fell through what I saw as support at 1.28...I now see it sitting on a moving average on the daily at 1.27 and I'm thinking we may just see some range movement between 1.24 and 1.31, much like we saw after the huge run to 1.60 earlier this year. I'll be on the sidelines unless the pair is at an extreme support or resistance but will be watching for any possible gap plays on the pair this afternoon.

Quick EUR & GBP/USD Longs...

...off the 1.28 and 1.52 support.

Closed for 25 & 75 points.

Will keep an eye on to re-enter at a later date.

Ended the week at -7.5%. Battled back from being down nearly 9% with more overtrading & emotional issues on Tuesday.

I'm reducing my standard trade size back down to about what I traded with my previous account...shooting for a .5-1% gain per trade and allowing for wider stops to accommodate this market's volatility. I'll be making more use of scaling in on the larger based trades.

The balance will come, I'm positive and upbeat about this...just need to hang in there a little longer and continue to get readjusted.

We still have a breakout setup on the EUR/USD which I will be following next week and probably into the following.

Have a good weekend!

Good Evening...

...scaled into some EUR/USD shorts and USD/CAD longs this morning. I've closed some of the earlier poor entry positions at breakeven and remain with a couple small entries (1k lot). EUR/USD is sporting a +120point lead while the USD/CAD long is nearly +200. I just entered a second USD/CAD long (2k) just above 1.23. I'm looking to see this test and break 1.24 and I look to see the EUR/USD return to 1.23-1.24. I will add additional EUR shorts as we break the 1.26 level.

I'm keeping my eye on the NZD/USD for a short at the 55.5 level to see it break support at 55 and head down to test 54.

USD/JPY closed for +46...

...wedge forming and I'll stay out until the top of the range comes. Very possible to see a swing to the upside.

Good morning..

...I've added a couple of positions.

Long USD/CAD with 1k @ 1.2322

Short EUR/USD with 2k @ 1.2644

USD/JPY is +50 but we really need to break 96 to see lower lows.

USD/CAD

Also keeping an eye on this pair...will wait for the gap to fill before scaling in longs below 1.23...support at 1.21

Test - U/J

Test

GBP/USD trade closed for +30

...added another 5k to the GBP/USD trade at 1.4742

...looking to get out at 1.478

Watchlist for the week of 11/17/08...

...What a gap on the EUR/USD & GBP/USD! I'm long right now on the GBP/USD at 1.4751, seeing if we can get some movement upwards to close this gap. A small 5k trade with a close stop. I'll keep an eye on the EUR to see if we can also get some movement back up in order to go short for the next leg down. Obvious resistance at the 1.28ish area.

Also watching the NZD/USD. There is a nice downtrend channel on the hourly and it looks like it will be coming down to make a double bottom and then break to new lows. The NZD also gapped down and I'm looking to see if we can get some movement back up to the 1.56 or higher range in order to go short. 1.565 looks to be the immediate resistance in this hourly downtrend while 1.58 price range will provide resistance on the daily charts.

On the USD/JPY, I look to see the downtrend continue...very clear on the hourly and the daily. I went ahead and entered short with small 2k lot at 96.92 and will scale in as we get close to the 97.5 and 98 mark. As for a void to this trade...I strong move above 98 will likely lead to me closing it while a break above 99 work confirm the void. I'll look to add another 2k as we break below 96.

That's all for now.

Ugh.

Had a horrible bit of emotionally driven trading just a few minutes ago...small scalp drew me for my largest loss yet.

Ending balance now at -6.1%

I'll be taking a few days off :) Catch you next week.

Just closed a few scaled USD/CAD longs out for losses...there is no movement on the majors right now and I'm not sure exactly what's going on.

account balance ending @ -1.7%

Review of this morning's trades...

...started at 2am pst shorting the gbp moves to new lows. Scaled in several times and was in the green but could not get out of the way fast enough when the retrace came. Closed all of the scaled trades for a loss of 1 percent. Secondly, I was scaled into the usd/cad on the break of 1.21. This provided my return of balance when the scaled longs were closed out for 40-60points each.

Account balance now remains much as it did yesterday at -1.3%

All positions are now closed...

+130 points on the EUR in addition to +10 and +50 on the two smaller lots
+34 points on the USD/CAD long
+27 points on the NZD/USD short

I will wait for the break of 1.25 to re-enter short on the EUR/USD. I'm also keeping an eye on the GBP/USD for a short breakout.

Short EUR/USD @ 1.2663

Closed three trades early for a total of -30points between last night and this morning. Most were based on false breaks, one longer term USD/CAD trade.

Caught the correct breakout this morning and have been short the EUR/USD since 1.2663. Unfortunately, we have several lines of support coming in the future yet I'll do my best to hold on to this for a full blown breakout, looking for new lows.

As the account stands right now, I'm at -3.6%, not including unrealized profits.

Still watching for the GBP and EUR breakdowns...

...-25 points in two trades, playing false breaks.

Patience...it's coming.

For Monday, 10/10/08...

...I'll be watching for the obvious breakout setups that we have on the EUR/USD & GBP/USD.

I took a quick break of support short on the GBP/USD a few minutes ago, pulling in a quick 10 points.

Balance, P/L Update

I'm five weeks into my goal of producing 5% account gains by 1/1/09. Ended the week -2.7%.

A screenshot of my current balance and P/L is below.

Have a good weekend!

Was on the road and missed my EUR breakout...was hoping to see a retracement back up to 1.29 but it looks long gone right now. I'll keep tabs on it...

**Also, took a second EUR short earlier and closed it early for -7 points. It was a good entry but the pair still had a bit more retracement left in it and I didn't want to widen my stops.

E/U closed for +85 points, another trade in the works...

Another breakout forming...this one will be more critical and significant if it is to the downside as we'll be breaking the uptrend over the last few days.

I'm trying to hold onto this EUR/USD for further downside progress...we're +80 points right now. 1.29 should provide hard support as we meet the upward trendline. Break that and I should be good for 150-200 points, if not more. Otherwise, I expect a hard bounce in which I'll look to book 80-100points and look for a possible re-entry later.

E/U

I went short, long & am short again with one loss (-25), one win (+16) and an on-going win with my recent short from top of the downward trendline @ 1.3019...really trying to hold this for a break to new lows. +35 points right now on a 5k lot.

EUR/USD

Closed the first short down at +3 points in an effort to get a better entry. Price dropped pretty quickly after that and I'm now watching for a short op on the break of 1.30...

Short EUR/USD @ 1.3082

Looking to see some downward movement. Scaled in first with a 2k lot...will scale in another 1 or 2k if we continue a ways higher. Not looking for any sustained movement above 1.31 (1.315). This would be my cue to get out.

I think this could be good for 150-200 points, if not more.

NZD/USD reversed long stopped out...

....-25 points.

Closed the NZD/USD short for -23 points, broke out North against me.

Reversed the trade and went long, 5k size, at .6060. S/L set below the top of the old range...see if we can get this thing moving up.

Short NZD/USD again...

...playing the triangle/wedge we have going here. Looking for a break below...

Went short for a quick 16 points...turned around for a false break.  I'll keep watching.

Also...NZD/USD

Possible triangle setting up...some support at the 38% of the recent ride up.  Looking to see a test of this support and then break to the upside, on to make new highs.

Folllowing up on that AUD/USD triangle that was setting it up...looks like it failed and I'm on the sidelines with that pair for the time being.

I'm watching the USD/JPY as we have a nice upward trending channel going and I believe we will peak above 100 again tonight/tomorrow.  Right now I'm trying to score an entry below .995, close to the upward moving trendline.  This trade will be a smaller 3k lot size as I want to allow for a larger stoploss, below .984.

Setup on the AUD/USD

Triangle breakout setting up...will need to break above resist (double top) @ .7 or may see some retrace to the downside...I don't think I'll be able to play this though, looks like it will blow in the next hour or two.

Took a quick long on the USD/CAD, trying to play a breakout.  Was a little early and lost momentum...closed for -16 points (3k lot).  Minutes later, momentum picked up and carried price through 1.22...............it's a little late for me so I'll let this one go.

Have a good night.

A couple of trades...

I went short the USD/CAD, playing the triangle and looking for continued movement to the downside. USD strength was just brewing (stocks were up??) and my triangle broke out against me. I closed this trade for -27 points (5k lot).

At the same time, I had triangles on the GBP/USD & EUR/USD, looking for breakouts to continue the downward movement after hitting recent highs...the EUR broke out to the downside and I took a short position (5k). I just closed this for +75points...wanted to hold further, especially that we had broken 1.30 but until I'm back into positive (account balance) territory, I'll keep my winners tight.

Good morning.

Was out and missed my CAD drop.

USD/CAD setup..

...this is the setup I'm watching.  Looking to see a break below and trend (down) continuation.

2k stopped at breakeven...

Short U/J

5k at the top of the range.  Closed 3k early at +22, stops moved to B/E on the remaining 2k, letting it ride to the T/P @ 97.4.

I'm watching USD/CAD & USD/JPY ranges tonight.

Quick G/U long

Tight range, caught a good buy on a dip below 163 and rode it up 15 points towards the top of the range. Waiting for a break...may get in again, we have another few minutes on this one.

Rate cut today, I will be mindful.

Took a small USD/JPY long...

...playing the breakout.  Saw a decent 35-40point move out but it soon failed and came back down to the break point.  I got out with a couple of points....was looking to see it bust 98 and head higher but not yet.

Watchlist for tonight/tomorrow...

I'm keeping an eye on the G/U support level of 160...either for a bounce and continued move up or a break of and retrace downwards.

U/J is in a small downward moving channel right now...keeping clear of that for the time being.

U/C...waiting on what it wants to do. Unable to get above 1.275 right now.

Rate cut coming tomorrow...time to be careful.

Went short U/C

Quick short on the U/C on the break of 1.27...got in right at about 1.2695. Tight stop just above 1.27. Not calling a top, just playing the some of the retrace momentum.  5k size.

**Short lived, out -22 points, no biggy.

U/J

Closed early for +12 points, will try and score a better entry...

Short U/J

@ 1.9385

Keeping an eye on the U/J as we break into Japan's open

G/U short

I'm a couple hours late but I took a 10k sized G/U short @ 1.5546, closed 1/2 @ +25 and the second half stopped out at breakeven.  Not quite seeing the conviction that I had hoped for...will be waiting.  Also took a tiny 1k short position against the USD/CAD earlier that was closed for some 20points.  Not worth mentioning but it did add one more trade to the bunch.

G/U Follow up

My trendline was broken to the upside and an 80+ point run up occurred...backed off at 1.57 and 1.56 will now stand as support. If we can get a break of this, I'll look to see price come back down to the double bottom @ 1.5275. Otherwise, we may see the USD give back some in a retrace.

Watching, waiting :)

G/U

Looking to see some continued movement downwards with the G/U...holding off for an hourly confirmation of such...stops would be set above 156.

Balance update

Ending balance for the week is below, no trades, down -4.6% for the year.

Watching

EUR/USD again...

Looks like we're ready to breakout on the EUR/USD...I'll be watching for a small possible breakout play.

The EUR/USD broke down nicely but without that retrace up to test the old support as I was looking for...

Next time.

EUR/USD

Shown below is a 4hr shot of the EUR/USD...you can see the break of the trend line...I'm looking to see price come back up and test this old line as resistance before continuing downwards to make new lows.

Below shows a close up of the action on the 1hr charts...

I would look to see a test of about 1.34 and then a reversal from there. Stops would be set above 134.5. 133.85 is the 38% retrace of the latest dump while 1.34 is just about the 50% retrace point.

USD Bulls

The EUR & GBP both had breakdowns of short term support/trendline and I'll look to see if we can get a retest of these for a possible short setup. It looks like this will be where the downtrend continues and I'm looking to get a decent price on the short to at least be at the top of the volatile swings that are sure to come.

We'll see what happens after Mr. Bernanke speaks...

Watching the GBP/USD for possible setups next week...

...looks like we have a breakout waiting on the hourly that should take the pair up to resistance @ about 1.76 (as seen on daily charts). From there, I'll look for either a break and run up of that resistance or a short to continue the downtrend. I'm biased to the downside but will try and keep an open mind as to what the pair may want to do.

Back to that EUR/USD..

..my little support line was broken and has really been proved irrelevant. Seems to be some strong support around 1.35 as EUR bulls have been trying to push that over the last couple of days, without luck.

No trades as nothing seems to be lining up on the longer term scope.

Have a good weekend!

EUR/USD

Watching the EUR/USD for an ideal long entry around the 134.85-135 support mark.

Closed for -15 points, P&L updated.

I need to step away for a bit...I really want to trade and prove myself on this new account but with the crap going on in the markets these days, it's not my time to trade.   I'm not used to these crazy moves, non-trending, etc. and I need to stay out...and get off these damn 15 & 60 minute charts.  

Ughh...

Also, a huge mistake that I've made over the last couple of weeks was trading full 5k lots instead of (5) 1k lots, so that I could at least scale out of half of position when in profit.  Several times have I been 50-100+ points and simply moved stops to breakeven, instead of taking half profit and then moving stops.  Lesson learned.

Good night :)

Long GBP/USD @ 1.744

Closed the GBP/USD short early for -37 points. 

Profit/Loss has been updated.

Short GBP/USD @ 1.7392

Closed below 174, looking for some continued movement downward.

Stopped out for -15 points on 5k lot...I'll keep watching this and see what the pair wants to do. It looked like we may have had some direction there but I guess not yet...

Stops moved down close...waiting to move to B/E.

Short USD/JPY @ 101.95

Hourly close below 102, looking for further downside. Stop above 102.42 spike.

USD/JPY

Keeping an eye on this pair for a possible short...trying to get a confirmation hourly close below 102.

Stops hit.  Ah, well...

We're seeing quite a bit of volatile movements over the last couple of hours...for now, with stops at breakeven, I'll leave everything alone and see if we can get some movement downwards as the EURO markets open in the next couple of hours.

+95points, moving stops to break even.

Short EUR/USD @ 1.356

Above gives a breakdown of Thursday-Friday's action on the EUR/USD and how my short, based on the break of channel, played out.

Below, I'm taking a quick look at the fib levels from the top of the (now broken) channel and the recent lows. After making the new lows, the pair retraced back to the 38% level and stopped. This level will be a good one to keep an eye on as price may continue lower to retest/make new lows or break through the 38% and see some serious retrace upwards.

Have a good weekend.

EUR/USD stopped out at breakeven

**Late update, sorry.  My EUR/USD short was stopped out at breakeven on yet another spike.  I'll review the trade more later.

Stops were moved to breakeven on the EUR/USD short...+75pips, seeing some retrace now but it has thus far stopped at the 1.355 level.

As far as T/P and with the trade only being a single 5k lot, I will likely try and hold on for a push to new lows.  It's risk free and while I would like to take quick profits and regain at least some of today's earlier losses, I'll hold on to this.  Further USD bull pushing + EUR weakness could prop up an easy couple hundred points, if not more.  

Funny how a 1.35 EUR to USD would have seemed so hard to believe just a few months ago...

Short E/U again @ 1.359, same idea as before, S/L @ 1.364

Stopped out of the short.

Alrighty, lets get up to date here...

Certainly not a fun day and I'm reviewing my actions & entries from earlier...I think some of the re-entry moves were certainly premature but on target with what I perceived to be the overall trend at the time.  Most important, risk/reward was set and my stops were in place to prevent further risk.

I must say that I'm most proud of myself with the reverse move today, as this is something I generally don't do, think of, etc.  Usually, after a losing trade, I simply get out of the market completely, close the trading station and review it later.  Today, I had identified what I thoguht was a trend (and it was!) on the EUR/USD hourly and I proceeded to trade it long, based on a trend line.  As the trend line broke down, it identified support (1.36).  On the break of that support, in concurance of the bounce off the 23% fib (latest decline as seen on the EUR/USD daily) earlier, I went short.

Anyway, identifying this trend breakdown and being able to immediately switch views and trade as such is an accomplishment for me.  Often times, I won't let go of a trade plan/idea, even if it clearly is still not valid...and even if I do let it go, I won't take the time to look at the other end of the trade to inspect any possible setups.

On the EUR/USD, we're seeing some movement downward and as long as price stays below 1.36, I'm not too worried.  In the coming Friday session, I would like to see it continue downward to make new lows.

[URL=http://imageshack.us][IMG]http://img171.imageshack.us/img171/6886/eur2qk8.jpg[/IMG][/URL]
[URL=http://g.imageshack.us/img171/eur2qk8.jpg/1/][IMG]http://img171.imageshack.us/img171/eur2qk8.jpg/1/w1130.png[/IMG][/URL]

EUR/USD long closed @ loss, trade reversed

Short now (break of 1.36), looking for a return to lows. 2 lots.

Will add up the early long losses later...we're looking at close to 2.5%

Second 5k lot added long EUR/USD

1.362

EUR/USD Long...again

5k long @ 1.365

EUR/USD Long Update

Stopped out at breakeven, spike down caught me. Perhaps I was a little too quick on pulling that S/L up but after that strong candle that put us +50points, I figured we were clean from there :)

I'm searching for another entry but will try not to get ancy on it...

EUR/USD long update

Stops moved to breakeven, we're +40points

EUR/USD Long

Long 5k units @ 1.364, playing the hourly uptrend & looking for some retrace north. Stops set just above 135.8

So much for the EUR/GBP respecting that 78 mark...blew right through it and looks as if it wants to return to the old range.  Oh well.

The USD/CAD too...wow.  I'm waiting for a retrace but likely won't play it.  Calling a top without notable resistance isn't my idea of a good trade.

On the sidelines...still.

Some follow-up...

The EUR/GBP has thus far respected the 78 mark...we had some movement downward last night but most of which has reversed. Until we get a daily close above the .78 line, I'll keep the opinion of this resistance. I would actually like to see another test and bounce off this line for verification sake...that might setup a small short trade.

The GBP/USD break through that 'double bottom' wasn't much of anything and it's sense rebounded...watching.

The EUR/GBP break has my attention right now as it has broken the range, came back up and tested the bottom of the broken range and retreated back down.  I'm now looking for some downward movement from this pair...

Above I show the bounce off the old range bottom and my expected direction of the pair.

U/C Breakout

So much for that range...looks like the USD just broke pretty hard north, even with positive CAD news.

Thoughts on this upcoming week...

I'm still keeping an eye on the USD/CAD, watching the range that we have going on.  A short at the price right now (108.75) sounds ideal, especially with it possibly bouncing off the August 07 spike high of 108.75...but it looks like the pair has broken the 68% fib level from the long term decline and I'm worried about a breakout to the North, above 109.

I'm not seeing much on the EUR/USD or GBP/USD.  I see a double bottom coming up on the GBP/USD at 1.75...a break of this low point will obviously lead to lower action.  I'll keep watching this...

The EUR/GBP had a break below it's longterm range...I'll also keep this pair on my radar.

Ending account balance down below...

Quick re-cap on the USD/CAD short...

...even with the horrible NFP, the dollar rallied right into my adjusted S/L @ 108.3, essentially taking me out for breakeven overall. Ending account balance was a couple of bucks down but the trade was nearly cost free. I'll have screenshots of the current account balance later today.

Good morning :)

lettting the second half ride through the nfp news this morning...stops moved up a bit to breakeven....

I took one 5k lot off the table at +29 points...will look to get the rest off soon. I was hoping for a larger move down and I won't be risking the NFP and bailout plan news.

I'm looking to go ahead and close this early...will give it another couple hours of thought.  

Good night!

Sitting on the fence right now as to what to do about the upcoming news tomorrow morning, with both the bailout plan as well as the NFP report coming. I was really hoping to see more action/bounce before the news but it looks like this pair wants to just drift around until the releases in the morning. I may try and close out one of the two 5k units if we can get some decent movement down again (which we saw earlier today with the drop to 107.65ish) and then move the s/l to breakeven.

More thoughts later...

A little chart below showing the obvious resistance point and what I'm going for...

Short USD/CAD @ 108.

10k units, looking for a decent drop back to 106.5ish levels, will move stops to b/e asap.

The risk/reward on this trade is excellent, backed by technical resistance @ 108. I'm concerned about the fundies/news out there right now along with the dollar strength...but will take this trade based on the risk/reward & technicals alone.

Today I begin trading...errr begin being ready to trade a new account.

Starting balance is $3,000 USD and I'm shooting for a 5% gain by 12/31/08 (Profit of $150USD)

I'll update as often as possible with account screenshots, showing the most up to date balance, trades, etc.

We'll get it started off right with a screenshot of the virgin account right now...sitting nicely at $3k.

The market is still nuts right now but there may be some trade ops in the coming week as the passed bailout settles in.  Until then, it's on the bench for me!

***Previous profits from 2/22/08-10/1/08 = +6.65% gains***

Plenty of gaps this weekend but with the US situation right now, any of them may be justified.

Trading the new account begins this week...if any trades become present.  The news right now...ugh, best for moi to stick on the sidelines.

:)

Following up on the EUR/USD post from yesterday, the pair came down to the 146 point last night and bounced pretty hard, making new 12 hour highs and putting a hole in the little hourly downtrend that we've had since making daily highs around 148 a couple/three days ago. So...1.46 maybe? After the bounce & punch, we came back to the first fib level of the recent swing upwards and bounced off of that.(146.35ish? <-- Sorry, I don't have the charts in front of me!)

So. 1.46 is what I'm watching right now. The markets look like they need to make a move soon but granted that we're coming down to the end of the week, we may just drift around the next 36 hours and let everyone digest the week's fundamentals over the weekend.

Still no trading, just having a bit of fun following the EUR/USD around. Also caught the U/J, would like to short this thing as well but that's more or less a "feeling" thing, especially with all the news flying around these days. I've not quite forgot my 2% loss with the U/J a couple of months ago...ha, definitely didn't forget that.

Good morning :)

Watching the EUR/USD right now...with the US econ crap that's going on and the push through the 38% of the latest EUR/USD decline, I feel the need to go long. However, I really don't have any solid (and by solid, I mean tested) support/resistance to depend on so I will hold off for now.

DailyFX is calling 145.5ish a support point...and I can see that on the hourly charts. Still not enough to trade this, at least not yet. I would like to see a pullback and bounce to either daily lows (146.10ish?) or to said 145.5ish support lines to provide conviction for a long trade up to the 148.5-149 area.

Just putting this out here. I want to trade it but won't, not until I can pull in some confirmation. I think this confirmation is especially valuable in times like these, with the USD swinging all over the placed based on someone, somewhere (Washington DC?) saying something :)

I'll keep watching for now...good morning!

Watching and waiting, new (larger) account upgrade

Still just watching...I'm not seeing anything that I'm too comfortable with right now. I'll continue to hold off until I see something I like.

That being said, I'll begin trading a separate, larger account with a new broker (FXSolutions) starting next week, 10/1. I'm going to aim for a gain of 5% on the account from 10/1 - 12/31/08.

*Keep in mind that when I begin trading the new account, I will disconcern myself with the gains made earlier this year and we'll be starting over with a fresh P/L %.

Missed the boat again (USD/CAD)...

...ha, nothing new here. Unfortunately, I couldn't pick-up my short entry last week (was hoping for another run up to 108) and USD/CAD followed through with an overdue break-out to the downside (some 450pips!).

No worries and it was good to see the trade worked out as I had wanted.

I was watching the GBP/USD last night, keeping an eye on the recent retrace and fib levels from the drop. Just watching for now...crazy markets right now. I picked a heck of a time to learn how to trade! :D

Good morning!

We saw a nice bounce off the rising trendline.support (spike down to 105.75 or so) early this morning and it now looks like the pair is headed upwards...may get to 108. tonight/early tomorrow and I'll be in for the ride back down.

Limit sell on the USD/CAD

I went ahead and setup a limit sell on the USD/CAD @ 108.01.  I'm attempting to take advantage of any further spike highs that we may have.  S/L above 108.6 and T/P @ 107.10 but will likely shut 1/2 of the trade down towards that point and see if we can ride the remainder below.

I really feel this is due for a breakout to the downside.  The 108. "top" is holding and there has been no daily close above 107.5

My concern revolves around the lack of lower lows, especially with the horrible USD news we've had this week.  The dollar just is not giving in quite yet...

Either way, tight S/L on the trade and we'll try and make it work.  Also, I'm stepping up my trade levels a bit, risking a full 2.5% on the trade and shooting for just less than a 5% gain (R/R = 1:2...almost).  I've been hesitant to trade full size lately and I'm trying to get over that :)

Sunday Gaps

Definitely some action going on across the pairs this afternoon...I'm just watching for now and will likely stay out of the action.  Strong moves.

Just sitting back for now, waiting for something to catch my eye.

Going over the USD/CAD trade...

Going over a bit more of last night's trade...

The good: 107 resistance held, as I expected.

The bad: I probably didn't give the trade enough thought before taking it and after looking through a couple of different expectations/views of the pair, the upward moving trendline on the the 3hr hit me in the face.

And while it was still a good range to play, it wasn't the safest at all, especially with all the conditions (USD strength, bullish ascending triangle). Most of all, for the tiny (original) target I had of 120pips or so, the risk was a bit overdone, going 1 for 1.5. It's also important to note that LAST WEEK's USD/CAD short used technicals WITH the fundamentals aligning (poor USD data + good CAD data). And although we did see some downward movement with that news, it still could not break a previous low (105.5) and obviously didn't impact the pair as much as I thought it would. This should have been a big heads up for me helped realistically arrange my T/P from the start...or it should have kept me out of the trade all together.

Regardless, the trade was based on solid resistance in addition to a range, which did hold true. It was a good decision to scale out early as we DID get quite a bounce right off the 106.00-05 price point.

The charting below shows the bullish ascending triangle & range on the daily as well as a close-up of the range on the one hour, showing my (damn near perfect... or fortunate) entry & exit.

Good morning :)

106.1 hit overnight for the last 1/4 of that USD/CAD short.  I'll run over P/L updates later.

Closed another 1/4 position out at 106.3, last 1/4 is riding.  I'm looking to get another solid bear candle in the next few minutes for the 12-1AM pst hourly close.

Good morning :)

USD/CAD update

bumped the t/p up to 106.10, in an attempt to avoid any support bounce @ 106.  S/L remains at breakeven.  We just closed up the hourly candle @ 12am PST and are at +39pips.  Taking 1/2 off the table.

USD/CAD S/L moved to breakeven, thinking on this one...

Mmk, I'm seeing a ascending triangle here and while I still believe we will see some retrace lower to the rising support (perhaps 105.7 level), I'm not going to fight the uptrend + global USD strength.  And while the CAD has been able to hold off most of the USD bulls at 107., it's just not worth the risk for 100 pips.

Below you can see the ascending triangle that I'm talking about...a bullish formation.  This added with global USD strength...eh.

My trade last week was based in part on the fundies...a weak NFP and strong CAD employment news.  This has apparently worn off and is not longer applicable.

Short USD/CAD @ 106.79

Same trade as earlier, same reason.  We're seeing some resistance in the 107. area...USD rallied against all other pairs while CAD held the line.  I believe the CAD is a bit oversold here and the 107 mark is about the 68% fib of the March07-Nov07 decline.

I'm also keeping an eye on the daily as we do have a bit of an uptrend going...but as long as the 107 top stays in place, I think we should at least see a good 100-120pip move downwards to the 105.5 level.

I will look to close this position early if we get a daily close over the 107. level.

Pictured is the daily & hourly.  Unfortunately, this is more of an hourly play but using the fact that the daily hasn't closed above the 107 level.  Usually, I would rather have the entire play based on daily charting and only use the hourly for specific entry/exit...but for this trade, the hourly charts will be more involved.

USD/CAD short stopped out at breakeven. This was a pretty small position so I wasn't looking to take 1/2 profits until we were real close to the T/P.

I will take another look at the charts and will be ready to re-enter, this time with a full size position. I need to verifiy that I'm still seeing the setup I want.

P/L Updated

*I'm a little late on updating from last week's gap losses, my apologies. We're up +5.6% for the year.

Stops moved to breakeven. We're +120 pips or so on this, need 105.5 & 105.5 to break. T/P moved up a bit to 104.7.

+100pips on USD/CAD, keeping it rolling

Sunday Gaps - 9/7/2008

I'm going to pass on today's gaps as we have the Fannie+Freddie bailout and I'm concerned that any "gap" moves may very well be justified and it's best to stay out of that action.

Sitting at +51 pips going into the weekend.  We'll see what next week brings.

Looking forward to Sunday gaps...lesson learned from last week's failed attempt at the GBP.  I'll try to recap more on that and go over the signals I didn't see/ignored.

Good afternoon.

USD/CAD follow-up

+40-45 pips right now. I'll look to move stops to break even if we can get a break of 106.

I'm not worried about holding this into the weekend

Short USD/CAD @ 106.80

Wide s/l, above the weekly high, looking to see some good retrace lower to 104 or below.  If we get a daily close above 107, I will look to close the position early.

Fundies are on my side with US having a worse than expected NFP and CAD's employment report being better...

Good morning :)

181 failed to hold again and I was stopped out...again.  I'll leave this one alone and check back later.

This is the setup I'm going for on the second attempt...no hourly close below 1.81 and a decent candle pointing upwards.

long the gbp gap again

in at 1.8117, sl at 1.8075, targeting 181.9

gbp/usd gap long stopped out

Long GBP/USD gap

longed at 1.8125, s/l at 1.808, looking for the gap to close at 1.82

Second 1/2 of NZD/USD lot stopped out at breakeven

More NZD/USD commentary

This is what I was looking for, originally...but was expecting some stronger selling pressure once we fell below that 23.6% retrace level. Today's US fundies didn't help much and we may range around before picking more direction.

I actually wouldn't mind seeing it continue on up to the 50% retrace level before dipping further. NZD rate cut decision next week, perhaps that will help us along.

Thoughts?

The second half of my short is still hanging in there but I'm not sure for how much longer. Stops were moved to breakeven, it's all risk free. The first half already had profit taken but as the lot was so small, the impact on the annual profit/loss was pretty small. Profit, nonetheless.

Closed 1/2 position @ +65pips

NZD short...

...+65pips as of now, looking to move stops to breakeven.  Hitting some resistance at .69 but I don't expect too much trouble getting through it.

Good morning :)

Short NZD/USD

Short NZD/USD with a small lot size @ .6982. I have a second larger short at around .7040. S/L above the 23% fib at .7075. Targeting .685 or lower.

Balance...

...also, you'll see the balance has increased a tad even though I've taken no trades.  My broker Oanda pays interest on the balance and hence there are some small increases...

+6% for the year as of TODAY, 8/24/08

Good evening :)

More thoughts on the Sunday gaps...

...running through some things and I'm trying to take another look on the sunday "gaps".  Posting here in an effort bookmark this thought process and come back to it later.  Basically, I'm looking to forget the whole "gaps" term and look at it as simply price movement and the fact that the price movement within the first few hours after the Sunday market open usually comes back to within a few points of the Friday close.

I broker with Oanda and usually do not see price gaps on Sunday.  Oanda's price movement starts coming in right about 1pm (PST) where as other brokers/charting won't show price until an hour or more later, thus creating a "gap".  I'm looking to play the opening price movement with the thought process that price will return to the Friday close.

More later

Slow Sunday for gaps.

NZD/USD hitting some resist...

...at the 38% retracement level.  I would really like to see it up to 50% before going short.

NZD/USD coming up on the 38%

Keeping an eye on the NZD/USD

Watching the fib levels on this one, looking to get short on the pair at the 38% or 50% point...

Welcome to Sunday gaps...8/17/2008

Morning!  T-minus 2.5 hours...

**Nothing really this Sunday.  Better luck next time...

Likely to be a slow FX week for moi.

Work/etc will be extremely busy this week.

Sunday gaps

E/U moving quickly downwards, huge move and I'll look to stay out of this.

Watching others...

Good afternoon :)

Ha, well so much for a bounce at 94!

I'll be sitting on the sidelines until I can make some sense of these currencies.

Sunday gap plays coming in another 36 hours, we'll catch up with you then.

Trending ops...

Keeping an eye on the GBP/USD for a bounce off the .94 price point (support) and some profit taking on the recent USD longs.

More Sunday gap follow-up from 8/3/2008...

EUR/USD gapped 25 pips and closed within 30 hours.  It should be noted that there was a 70 pip move upwards before closing (ha, which took out my stop in the process).

EUR/JPY gapped 18 pips and closed within 2 hours.

GBP/USD had a small 10 pip gap upwards which continued to climb up another 15 pips or so before heading down and closing on the third hourly bar.

NZD/USD had an 18 pip gap which closed on the third hour bar.

USD/JPY had a small 6 pip gap which quickly extended against the gap, offering up some pips...the gap closed on the eight hour bar.

That's it.

E/U Gap Closed

More later

**Update.  The screenshot shows the close.

E/U Gap follow-up..

..still watching this, price did not stay much over 1.56 on the hourly. Now it looks setup to retrace some lower. I will be watching. No longer in the trade and I cannot re-enter at this time.

E/U gap stopped out. Account loss of nearly 1%

I'll look into this with more detail later.

Follow-up on the E/U gap trade

The EUR/USD gap is not wanting to close right now...we came within 14 pips of closing last hour (within 5 pips of my T/P) but reversed hard and is now climbing. My S/L is @ about 156.10.

A little frustrated with this one...usually the EUR gaps close pretty quickly.

The screenshot clearly shows the gap, the resistance levels, SL level & where my TP is.

Good morning :)

Short EUR/USD gap to close...looking for 20pips

I'll follow-up later with screenshots, etc.

Good afternoon :)

Done for the week

...ending balance is at +6.7% for the year.

Sunday gaps are two days away, hopefully we can get more action than last week.

Not much for trend trading this week, I'm honestly a little confused with the market and the recent US strength so I will remain on the sidelines until I find something that I like. I really do want to get short on the NZD/USD and was hoping a weak job loss report this morning may have presented an opportunity but...that wasn't the case. I'd really like to see this back to .75 before going short...

Have a good weekend and good morning :)

Shout out to Selah, Washington!

I just wanted to say thanks for reading and encourage any comments/opinions/etc.

Keeping an eye on that AUD/USD...

I like that .95 support and how it's held up with the across the board USD strength this morning. Major moves against the EUR & support blown on the GBP but AUD holds. I'll continue to watch it and see what happens...looking to revert back to the original long idea and perhaps the employment reports coming later this week will kill this USD rally and allow the AUD/USD to continue upwards (sticking with the longterm uptrend on the daily).

Good afternoon :)

Stops hit on AUD/USD - Out at breakeven

AUD/USD, GBP/USD

stops are about to be taken out...we just could not get over that 958 mark last night.  Saw some bounce on 955 but I doubt it will hold.

GBP/USD fell nicely as expected.

GBP/USD - wanting to go short...more AUD/USD

below 1995 and ride this down to 199 (or lower) but I will hold off right now.  Rising bottom trendline converging on the primary downtrend so I do expect a break soon (thinking lower).  I'll wait for that break to make a trade.

1985ish or a bit higher looks to be the support we need to sink this pair.

On the AUD/USD, I'm still sitting about the same...+30something on the first position and +10 something on the second.  S/L is still at breakeven.  The screenshots show what I'm going for with the daily trend as well as an update on the current pip situation.

A/U update...

...holding steady at about +35pips on the first position and +15 on the second.  Stops at breakeven, risk free.

AUD/USD Stops moved to Breakeven

AUD/USD update...

I'll look to move S/L to breakeven/.955 in the next couple of hours. I want to be a little more mindful of any possible strong selloffs/strong USD.

Good morning :)

AUD/USD update...

+20 pips on the first small position, went ahead and entered a market long with a second small position @ .9567 and I still have my full size position set at .9510.  Right now, as long as we stay above .955, I'm looking to see the pair move upwards.

Good morning :)

Limit longs set on AUD/USD...

....9510 is what I'm going for.  S/L .944 & TP above .965 but is very subject to change.

*Market long a small order @ .9542.  Full size limit long remains in place, waiting patiently.

Small gap on the AUD/NZD...

...looks to be about 25 pips.  I will be watching it.  FXStreet charting shows the price level down to  1.285 but my broker is still showing 1.287 so I'll hang to the sidelines for now.  It seems to be coming to short term support @ the 1.285 level and getting some bounce.  Close price is 1.287

***Correction, there was no real gap down upon further inspection.  There was a small gap upwards but this was quickly closed with a strong move downwards which appeared to represent a false larger gap.***

Slow Sunday for gaps, oh well.

Good morning and welcome to Sunday gap plays

I'll update as the gaps come in...reviewing the news right now to ensure nothing critical happened over the last 48 hours that may justify any gaps.

Update...

Mmk, it's just after 1pm PST and the E/U & G/U have started to gap down a bit.  AUD/NZD has made the largest gap thus far of about 20 pips.  My spread is going to be extremly high the first few hours at around 10pips for the majors and even more for the minors.

Update...

Almost 3pm PST, I've looked over the majors and the gaps just aren't coming in this afternoon.  Nothing more than a few pips and we don't touch those :)

I'll catch up later this evening with some more recap if anything comes up.  Good afternoon :)

AUD/USD Daily Trendline...

...I'd like to get long on this for the trek upwards and .95 looks like a really nice number. Taking a look at the hourly, .955 seems to be holding well and it may not quite get down to the .95 price point. Will keep watching. Again, I'm trying to get my entry as close as possible to what I see as support to avoid another U/J trade with a super early entry...but we'll see.

We're going into the weekend so there will not be any trade entries until Sunday/Monday... but I'll keep an eye on it.

I was watching the GBP/USD last night and almost wanted to go long as we came down to the 1.985 support line but held off as we had GDP news coming afterwards. The pair did rocket upwards a good 100-150 pips but reversed sharply and is now showing some sort of little downtrend channel on the hourly but is still in an uptrend on the daily. This pair seems to be getting increasingly hard to trade with fundies in mind as the UK news is getting worse and the US market is still crap (IMO)...so I'm just not very sure on this one. I think we'll need to break 2.0 again to confirm the uptrend.

The US stock market is sort of at break even today, banks are falling back down. Another 1.5hours till close.

I'm looking forward to the gap plays this Sunday afternoon. I'm not sure if I'll put my money where my mouth is and trade them on my main account as I did last week...but I'll certainly be watching them and if anything decent comes about, I may give it a try.

Oh and I purchased http://www.forexgaps.com/ so I figured I would give that URL it's first bit of publicity. Not sure what I want to do with it but it would be cool to get a decent forum up and running, bringing in different experiences & input.

I'll catch you Sunday. Have a good weekend :)

**I'm also watching the NZD/USD for possible short entries (close to the upper trendline). Same channel that I played last week...

Follow-up on the U/J trade...

....pips lost and precautions for next time will be updated later.  It's coming :)

A couple of things that come to mind now...

- Wait for the correct entry, ie close to the support/resist that the trade is based upon.  There was no reason to enter at the early price of 106.35 when resistance was so far away.

- Watch the S/L and adjust as necessary.  That last short sell I had was hanging as I had not adjusted the S/L to agree with my other short entries' S/L.  There was no reason for this, especially after we had blown the resistance line that the entire trade was based around.  The trade should have been shut down...not doing this and letting it run that extra 30pips to the S/L cost money.  Unnecessary loss.

Last U/J short stopped out. Total account loss...

...just under 2%.

Good Morning :)

U/J Stopped

I was stopped out of two of the positions for a 1% loss. The remaining position will bring the total loss up to about 1.6% if/when stopped out.

Verge of S/L...

...chart shows the breakout on the daily. This may fall back or it may accelerate.

USD is posting gains across the board. The stock market is not down like I had wanted it to be but it's also not posting big gains. Banks are rallying.

U/J Short...more

Looking at it now, it certainly looks like I got in far too early, even with my scaled entries. I should have held back and waited for a price that allowed my S/L to be relatively close and my T/P to be 2-3x that.We'll hangout and watch this.

I know the other limit sell has been hit, which is good...but the first entry was larger than it should have been.

A S/L will run me about a 1.5% account loss.

U/J Short...

...Continue to watch, I'm a little worried about my S/L being a bit too short but won't hesitate to re-enter if I'm taken out and my technicals are still clear.

Down about 50pips right now & I believe my second limit sell has been activated.

More on the USD/JPY Short

I went over this earlier today and stated that I rarely trade this pair...but I feel the US stock market will be headed lower soon, which will impact the USD/JPY which trade in similar fashion.  Secondly and most importantly, we have a nice downtrend on the daily/hourly with 107 being the point of resistance.  We've made lower lows and I look to see this continue.

My first entry was at 106.35.  I've staggered a second limt at 106.85 or so and may place another in between.  My S/L currently is set just above 107.2 and I'm targeting the low 105's.  I may pull the entire position at that time, may cut half and let the rest ride or simply adjust my stop and let the entire position run. 

The charts show the daily and then the hourly...you can see the resistance and support levels as well as the downtrend that the trade is based upon.

Thoughts?

Good evening :)

Short USD/JPY, wide S/L, going for 150+pips

I'll add charts later.

I like the idea of a USD/JPY short...

...but will hold off for now. Looks like a nice little downtrend on the daily, we're right about at resistance and I BELIEVE the US market will be done with this little 4 day rally and be ready to continue on with the dump. However, the USD/JPY honestly scares me and is known for it's voilently quick moves, something I'd rather stay away from at least until I feel more comfortable with the pair.

It should be fun to watch :)

On the NZD/JPY, we're flirting with the 96 mark right now...looks like we want to go lower but will continue to watch for now.

Good morning :)

GBP Gap Closed...well, almost

With a nice bounce off the previous low (1.9907), we were able to come back and just about close the gap. I had my T/P set about 10 pips below the actual gap close price, just in case we had another AUD/USD run like last week (almost closing). This turned out to be similar as we only came close to filling...but my T/P's were hit and all was good.



The screenshot sort of goes over what happened...balance received an increase just shy of 1%. Not bad for a Sunday evening :)


We're up +8.6% for 2008.

GBP/USD gap still not filled...

...we're about 8 hours into market open and still no fill, sitting about the same price I entered at.

Long the GBP/USD gap

Watching the AUD/USD & NZD/USD for next week...

...will be keeping an eye on the AUD/USD for a chance to get long for the next leg up. .97 seems to be holding nicely, not sure if it will continue. This may be a chance to stagger in some longs all the way down to the rising trendline. I expect this little bounce back in the USD to end today (Friday!) and for next week to continue downwards.

As for the NZD/USD, it would be nice to get short again, possibly on another rally. I would like to look into building a longer term NZD short, something that I have not done yet. I've rarely held trades more than 3-4 days, a week at most. So this would be a new experience but one that I believe would pay off. Selecting the right points to exit the trade (at a loss ie S/L) will be the most difficult issue, I believe. Building long term positions is fine and dandy until one needs to look into determining at which point they say I WAS WRONG on direction, news, whatever.

More of that next week. I'm looking forward to the Sunday gaps...it would be nice if we could see some action similar to last week's gap movements.

And I'm up +7.9% for the year.

Have a good weekend :)

eh, that aud/usd...

...too bad about getting stopped out earlier...and only by 5 pips did I miss the 100+ pip move downwards, as thought.  It bounced back up a bit on .97 and it looks like a nice short for the next leg down on the hourly around .974.  I shall resist as it's just an hourly trend (less trustworthy IMO) and we're going into the weekend tomorrow.

Glad to see my trade plan worked out just the stop loss didn't.  I'm still thinking I had my S/L set about right...just that I should have been ready to re-enter short when the spike that took me out did not hold and quickly fell back.

rambling.  on the road again tomorrow, will be tuned in for Sunday gaps though! :)  Have a good Friday.

NZD Trade Closed

Took the 106pips and ran with it. Nice bounce off the .76 there...had some trouble closing it fast enough and unfortunately couldn't get it closed before the bounce. Regardless, pips were good and this was a pretty easy trade. I may short another retrace...looks like we may break into a triangle here if the bottom continues to rise...otherwise, if we can break it and make lower lows, it should be time to short again.

After the loss of .5 percent on the AUD/USD short last night, this trade brought in a 1.75% account balance increase.

I plan to be done for the week and look forward to trading Sunday gaps this weekend. If I can find anything trustworthy, I may trade the gaps with this primary account (not the smaller, secondary account that usually handles the gap trades).

Good day! :)

NZD Update

The trade is going well. Up about 95 pips & I'm trying to close 1/2 of the position...

Chart shows the progress...compare it to the chart from earlier today and you can see that I'm getting the movement that I had wanted.

NZD Chart, Downtrend

This is what I'm watching on the NZD short...trying to play the daily downtrend.

I am concerned about the rising bottom. The lack of lower lows is not something that I like...but I believe we're still headed for some retrace lower, at least a good 100-150 pips.

I will look to close half of the position when we get some decent pips banked and continue to adjust the S/L to protect the remaining half. Right now, S/L is still remaining at breakeven as I will not take profit on just the +30-50pips we have right now.

AUD/USD stopped out

for loss of 22 pips, NZD/USD is +30 pips, S/L moved to break even.

Good Morning :)

Also short NZD/USD...

SL above 778, targeting a good 150+pip move downwards.

If this short doesn't work out, I won't hesitate to take another shot in the future.  I believe NZD/USD will be headed lower eventually and am taking advantage of the recent rally to go short.  Following the daily trendline on this one.

Short AUD/USD @ 1.9760

Looking to play some retrace here...watching the downtrend on the hourly and the recent climb on the daily.  Would like to see this come back to the upwards moving trendline on the daily to go long again.

S/L set just above 978, T/P .972.  Will move S/L to B/E after we get below 975

Not a normal trade for me but this is what I think it will do.  S/L is close by if this thing wants to climb higher.

See the screenshot for the little downtrend I'm following on the hourly...

Sunday 7/13/08 Gaps

E/U (40pips), G/U (40pips), U/J (30pips) all closed. The A/U had a large 50pip gap which came close to closing up (10 pips away) but ended up reversing and just not closing the gap.  It came close again about six hours later but again reversed at that "10 pip away" point.

Regardless, it was a good weekend for gaps.

Sunday Gaps for 7/13/08

Recovering from Vegas and was on a plane during the market open yesterday. I reviewed some of the market open action and it looked like we had some real nice sized gaps (40-60pips), all of which closed.

I'll review them more closely later today and report back.

Good morning :)

Update

My apologies for the late update, I've been busy & sick. Didn't play any Sunday gaps, as posted last week. Watched a couple but didn't look like too much action. I still need to review all of them.

This will likely be a no trading week. I've been getting over a cold, have had net problems at home and am out of town Thursday. Viva Las Vegas, if you're in that town, drop me a message and we'll meet up for some good times.

Have a good week and best of luck with these markets!

No weekly balance change

Made a couple of pips this week but not enough to move the balance any.  Have a good fourth!

Weekend outlook - Gaps

I think I'll go ahead and take this weekend off for Sunday gap plays. With the fourth coming tomorrow, the markets will be thin going into the weekend so...that in addition with any gaps just sounds like additional risk - no thanks :)

G/U limit cancelled

I'm looking to stay out of the fundies mess that will be coming tomorrow with the NFP.

More E/U short recap, limit long set on G/U

E/U short was closed early...we made higher highs overnight on the hourly & broke through my little short term resistance levels. We did dip a bit from there but did not visit yesterday's lows and then hopped up again to make new highs. I'm not a fan of this and will stay out for now. +12 pips is an easy ticket out.

Also, I forgot to mention that I set a limit long on the GBP/USD @ about 1.982 yesterday afternoon. We came down close a few hours ago, to the 1.985 support level and then bounced upwards. 1.985 looks to be sitting right about on the uptrend that is shown on the hourly, so it would have been a good time to go long for a quick play...but! I think I'll stick with 1.982 for now and may look to buy in again at a bit lower price. S/L right now is set about 1.974 I believe, a bit wider than I would like to have it but I think that price could swing a bit below the support (198ish) yet not exactly breakdown. T/P is set at 199.8. Risk/Reward @ 1:2, not counting any further staggered longs.

Good morning :)

E/U short closed early for 12 pips

Short EUR/USD @ 1.582

S/L set above 1586, T/P to 1568 and may pull it up.  Easy play.  Either resistance holds or it doesn't.  The screenshot shows my short entry and the short term resist levels.  There is some news coming in the next couple/three hours which will make or break this trade.

Still watching, limit order set just above 1.98 on G/U

Trading ideas for the week...

I like the double top on the EUR/USD but don't have the balls to short it. Will look to get long as we approach the support (154, I believe?)...maybe stagger some small longs @ 1.56 and look to get heavy as we come down to support. Targeting at least the resistance line @ 1.58 and may hold on to some for a break above and run up to 160, etc. Not sure. Not a EUR/USD trader but the technicals give me some comfort right now, in addition to my thoughts of further US econ weakness.

And...also looking to get long on the GBP/USD, if we can get a pullback to support (around 198 IMO)...may stagger longs starting at 1985, 198 and perhaps again at 1975...need to look at the charts a bit more to come up with a support figure. But I do believe it's due for some pullback and already this morning it fell below the 199 figure.

Thoughts? I know I'm getting at least a few page views...one coming in from New Zealand. Cool! And speaking of NZ, I know I was talking about setting up a short for the NZD/USD last week...but I was waiting for some more NZD strength to come about to get a nice short entry. Well, I may have missed it early this morning on the run to .765...but it may head back up to about .77 which would be most ideal with the downward trendline. Anyway, I'll keep watching. USD weakness could offer me my ideal price. I'll look more later.

More on Sunday 6/29/08 Gaps

I checked over the major pairs this morning and there really wasn't much. Even the EUR/USD gap that I played probably should have been left alone, as it was pretty small. In the other pairs, it didn't look like anything was more than 15 pips, if that. A lot of smaller 10 pip gaps, all of which closed quickly.

On the EUR/USD gap trade yesterday, the first one was stopped out. The stop was far too close to the entry but my thinking was that if I get stopped, fine, I'll re-enter on the next support @ 75. Well, I was stopped out but due to a random spike, one that didn't even show up on the 5 min chart. So...lesson learned, I went ahead and entered again at about the same price and took some gain on the gap closing a couple of hours later. The problem with trading after the open is the spread is big...I believe it was 8-10 pips last night (Oanda)? So with being stopped out, the loss was around 15 pips. And of course when I took profit, there was only +6 pips. Net is -9 pips.

To sum it up, second chances are hard to get in the gaps and my stop was far too tight. My mentality was not set to accommodate the larger spread. Secondly, if I would have kept the spread in mind, the total possible pips on that gap was less than 15 pips and probably should not have been traded in the first place. Ah well.

Nonetheless, it was good to see the gaps fill, no matter how small they were.

Good morning :)

EUR/USD gap trade closed for 6pips. Lousy but...it worked.

The screenshot shows the original entry and subsequent stop out (red circle) as well as the second entry with take profit (green circle).  Keep in mind there was a pretty killer spread of 10 pips...so when the trade was closed, it was actually closing at the gap close price level.  Make sense?

I take that back on the U/J gap...

....doesn't look like it was a real gap overall. It does look like it opened a bit higher...but from there, moved on it's own...it did not really just open high.

I'll look at it later.

The EUR/USD gap trade (TAKE TWO) is looking OK right now, up a few pips. Looks like this thing will be ready to close in the next couple of hours. Stop is still set below the 75 "support" @ about 65ish. I'll try and get a screenshot here in a little bit.

Long again EUR/USD, wider s/l.

Let's give it another try

EUR Gap stopped out, now watching...

EUR/USD Gap

Went long just above the 1.5775 point, looking to fill this 20pip gap.  S/L is tight just below 1.5775.  May go long again at 1.575 if we get that drop.

The screenshot shows the entry (blue triangle). 

Sunday Gaps 6/29/08..

...just getting up and going this afternoon.  Thus far. EUR/USD is gapped down 25 pips & USD/JPY has begun to gap upwards.  GBP/JPY also has some upward movement of about 15 pips...coming up on the 212. level...might be a place to get short at.

USD/JPY will be my main focus.

Trending ops for next week, position sizes, etc.

...also watching the AUD/USD for a pullback long. Maybe we can get something next week...looking to enter around .95 or lower and play the long upwards as we did last week.

**Will also keep tuned on the EUR/USD, as it's seems to be in a little bit of a range and I'm a fan of those types of trades. Let's see if it can form a tripple top here and dive back down to the support range...that or break upwards and on to make new highs. I'm looking for more of a range trade though & not looking to play upward movement. But with a weak dollar coming, eh, I don't know if we'll get that chance. Let's watch! :)

Also, one thing I need to work on is making my position sizes more consistent. Right now, I'm using variable lot sizes, sort of depending on my confidence or because of staggered entries. I think staggered entries will still require varied lot sizes but otherwise, trades need to be of the same size. So...I'll work on implementing this over the coming weeks and because of such, I may encounter bigger drawdowns if any of my first few "more consistent lot" trades are losers. But, granted I keep consistent with my trade sizes, the wins will come back and take over the running P/L.

The account is up +6.4% this year, down .2% from last week with the GBP/USD trade loss from yesterday morning.

Screenshot of the market sell on G/U

Showing my stoploss hits (red circle) from yesterday morning and then my subsequent market sell & T/P being hit (green circle).