USD/JPY TP hit for +25 points on full size position.

This may want to rally harder now but I will do my best to look the other way. There is a mess of resistance above 97. that could push it back down but after this first play, I'll look to hold off.

Watching for USD strength the remainder of the night for a EUR/USD play.

Should USD bulls push through the London session tonight...

...I will be watching EUR/USD around 1.39 for a bounce. Previous S&R in addition to 61% fib from recent highs.

Going over a few awesome, nearly textbook Support & Resistance trades today

First, the USD/CHF around the 109. level. I posted up about this earlier and hopped in for a short with a half size position, closing minutes later for a mere 10 points, thinking it would be driving further up. Unfortunately, I wasn't keeping an eye on the bottoming EUR/USD as it nailed it's own support at 1.40 and as both pairs are USD correlated, they bounced off their respective levels with the EUR/USD nailing it on the dot and USD/CHF coming only a few points short.

Nonethless, the levels were perfect and all worked together wonderfully.

USD/CHF is shown below, 109. working perfectly with a 50% fib retracement from recent move down from 1.1 highs. Very nice.



EUR/USD is next. As posted above, 1.40 was the bounce point and the 38% fib from recent highs was just below that price.



Last but not least is my favorite setup and the one I should have been paying most attention to. GBP/USD, after spiking through the resistance top, had fallen some 300 points and was ready to bounce. A previous S&R location at 1.6425 would provide this along with a perfect 61% fib retracement. Wow. I saw this about 10 minutes after the initial bounce and couldn't believe I had not seen this earlier.



Some prime examples of what I look for :)

And I'm in with a full size short USD/JPY @ 96.92.

No fear, ya :)

I really want some USD strength to come through,

as I have no game plan for any sort of bear USD. The GBP/USD & EUR/USD both have messy tops. USD/CAD does have some support down around 1.145 but it's not the cleanest.

USD/JPY is breaking upwards as I type, going to go watch that right now. Chart attached below.



Charts will be coming later tonight...there were amazing setups (really, all one big USD bull bounce) today that I completely missed. More later.

Sticking to a more original game plan, USD/CHF

shorts on order at 109. Price is hanging around 108.80 right now but I want to see a push up before shorting this thing. Looking to go full size if not x2 full size.

THESE are the trades that I need to wait for. I've been quite anxious the last week and it's going to show when I update the balance (I imagine it's -12/13%). All of that being said, I don't feel too emotionally rocked with the losses, which I'm happy about.

Price is moving lower on the USD/CHF now, may have missed this one.

G/U Shorts closed for average -90points on half size position.

Equities are down nicely with a USD rally but I could not survive the over night spikes of 100+ points above monthly highs.

Long G/U @ 1.65 earlier this morning, half size, stopped out for -50p.

USD/CHF on deck, 106.5 level

Closed USD/JPY early for +10 points.

Frustrated seeing the action two hours after closing.

G/U short still on, added another 1/4 size short at 1.66

GBP/USD Short 1.656 1/4 size

Looking for a move down, nice resistance range here...equities to fall tomorrow?

Small trade, wide stops, looking for 80-100 points. Not sure if I'll add if we move higher, would rather avoid that as it wasn't fun last week with the EUR/USD situation.

Short USD/JPY 106.05

1/2 size trade, looking for a move back down. I like these descending triangle plays and will see if we can get this to head back to test the bottom. Stops above recent highs 106.6

EUR/USD -55 on 1/2 size

USD/CAD for a long bounce 1.145

Short EUR/USD, 1/2 size 1.3995

EUR/USD break below 1.40, watching...possible breakout play

I may play a short EUR/USD on the break below 1.40...it's moving now but I'm trying not to get into the first suckers run. Want to wait for some retrace and then get with the program.

Otherwise, I'm watching for a long bounce around 1.39 for 25-30 points.

:)

Good Sunday Afternoon, Watch list for this week

USD/CAD & USD/JPY, as posted last week (see below).

EUR/USD 1.434

GBP/USD 1.622-4ish...big range in there.

Watchlist for June 25 2009 - July 3 2009, USD/CAD & USD/JPY Shorts

USD/JPY below. 97-97.25 looks like a great short, if we can make it up there.



USD/CAD below. Strong daily level around 1.175-1.18 with the 61% fib hovering just above this level.

The rest of the Wednesday, June 24 2009 trades...

-15 AUD/USD long (x2 full size)
+20 USD/CHF short (x2 full size)
+30 USD/CHF short (1/2 size)
+70 EUR/USD (1/10 size)

Was watching the EUR/USD for a move last night but slept right through it. I'm sorry I didn't get the chart posted before the action but I'll go ahead and post it now as it was generated before the move. Price came up nicely just below my marked level and then fell as expected.



Now watching USD/CAD for 1.18 and USD/JPY for 97. USD/JPY may hit today/this afternoon/tomorrow...

-7.9%

Closed the large EUR/USD positions for +10 and +70. A x2 full size USD/CHF long was stopped for -20.

I have the 1/4 size EUR/USD short on from last week still, stops @ 1.414

FOMC today, not going to be fun.

Interesting day, more to come...

I worked myself into an interesting position today, shorting the eur/usd moves with trade sizes several times my "full trade size". Usually, I risk less than 1percent per trade but today, I was and still am pushing the risk level up above 4 percent.

I'm okay with this. I'm a little further leveraged than I would like to be but I'm sticking to my guns on this one. I have on going shorts scaled from 1.405 to 1.41, targets right now at 1.4025, stops above 1.414.

While this morning was a bit of a headache, taking a 2perc loss on an earlier half size eur/usd short, I'm quite calm and collected now.

I'm sorry I didn't post earlier but I wanted to keep my mind free of doubt, guilt, etc, no matter how deserving.

Today will be turning up the heat on future trades and moving away from the less than 1 perc risk taken on trades. I'm bored with that. I see hardly any reward. I have a 65-75perc batting average with trades and I need to trade a size/risk that reflects such.

More later, good afternoon :)
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What I'm watching...

EUR/USD for a long 1.374 range:



USD/CHF for a short, 109.55 - 109.85:



It will be key to keep an eye on dollar strength...do not want to get in the front of any trains.

Regarding profit loss % updates...

...I aim to update the Profit/Loss % at the end of the day but will sometimes hold off until trades are complete. As silly as it may sound, updating that Profit/Loss % can influence my mood/trading, etc, especially after putting in an update after every single up and down.

Shorted EUR/USD 1.39 full size for +25

Trade closed.

With equities falling and the EUR/USD running into short term resistance at 1.39, I put a short in with tight stop. Closed 25 mins later for +25

Good Morning, USD/CAD stop out, EUR/USD short update, Outlook

I coaxed myself into a USD/CAD short this morning, using a level that was already tested last week but looked like it may be ready for another bounce. Not the case. Shorted USD/CAD at 1.1485 and was stopped out a couple hours later for -35 on 1/2 size position.

My EUR/USD 1/4 size short is looking OK, +100-130 points. Looking to see further down movement through today, equities are down nicely, pushing USD up.

I'm watching EUR/USD for a long bounce at 1.374

Game plan for the week of June 21, 2009

I have my 1/4 size EUR/USD short still on, awaiting either a market breakdown or a run up to 1.404-1.407 for a full size short.

For a long bounce, 1.37 looks appealing on the EUR/USD

No charts for now, these levels are nothing new and I'll wait to look again after we see some movement (PLEASE) tonight.

Being certain in the realm of uncertainty

For the last year, I've been reading through Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas. It seems to be one of the top trading books recommended out there and while I believe the book's message is repeatedly repackaged chapter by chapter, it's a good read.

I skim through this book often and have several times come across a few sentences that I wanted to note and keep in mind on a weekly basis.

"Although few would admit it, the truth is that the typical trade wants to be right on every single trade. He is desperately trying to create certainty where it just doesn't exist. The irony is that if he completely accepted the fact that certainty doesn't exist, he would create the certainty he craves: He would be absolutely certain that certainty doesn't exist."

-- Trading in the Zone, Mark Douglas (Chapter 7, pg 110)

:)

End of the week, still holding 1/4 size EUR/USD short

Nothing else to add. Ending the week at -7.1% with the unrealized gain/loss at about breakeven.

Off to lunch, have a great weekend. We'll catch up on Sunday with levels for next week.

Good Morning, still holding my 1/4 size EUR/USD shorts...

...and we've ranged all around from +60 to -40 and back to breakeven. US Markets just opened so I hope to see some direction but it looks like they're getting off to a slow start this morning.

No trades over night, was up every couple of hours, keeping an eye on the EUR/USD in case of a move upwards but nothing.

Short GBP/USD @ 1.645 for 20 points on full size, on-going...

...EUR/USD 1/4 size from 1.396. I will either let this run for 100+ points or take it on up to 1.403-1.406 which is next on my watch list for a bounce.

Chart attached below, showing the bounce & overall trend potential with the EUR/USD at 1.403-1.406

www.ImageShack.us" />

Got a little impatient...

with a G/U trade a few minutes ago, shorted G/U at a short term resistance point, full size trade, and was taken out for 40 points or 1.4% on the account balance.

A nice little pinch to stick to the larger levels.

Oh and HELLO NEW FOLLOWER :)

Thanks for subscribing! Feel free to pitch some ideas in via the comments or drop me an e-mail.

USD/ CAD, Letting this morning go

I took a small (1/10 size) short on the USD/ CAD @ 1.14 this morning for 35 points, closing after the hard bounce on resistance at 1.135. Waiting for my 1.147 level, we only got up to 1.145 before turning down for some 60-70 points.

I'm done for the day morning now, will give the charts a look over at lunch and see if we can hit anything tonight, tomorrow or Friday.

A small balance increase, 1/10 of a percent with today's long.

Good Morning, missed my GBP/USD long...

...was sleeping. Surprise! Looks good for 40 points so far.

USD/CAD next on the watchlist.

I'm watching GBP/USD, USD/CAD tonight/tomorrow

GBP/USD 162.4-2, 61% of the recent move up & past S&R. A little short term but with the past support, the trade looks good. Credit to a "joe d" for bringing this one up on the www.nobrainertrades.com chat room this evening.




USD/CAD is also on the line, same 1.147 level that I've been waiting for all week.

A look at what I was looking at this morning with the EUR/USD short...

A quick shot of what I was looking for earler this morning with the EUR/USD short play. I already had the resistance area in the 1.39 range marked and figured we would see some reaction off that area. This, coupled with the short term trend down and break of 1.38 yesterday (however, no break of lower levels at 1.375, etc.), I was looking for continued movement downward.


Almost happened...but shortly after moving stops to B/E, the EUR powered back up to test highs before heading lower into my adjusted T/P at 1.383

Next time. These smaller trend plays with larger T/P's are generally a lot lower stress for me and risk is quite in control (generally .3-.5% of the account per trade).

EUR/USD Short, Stopped out at breakeven

Equities turning up...was worth the try.

EUR/USD Short, +50, Stops to B/E

Let's see if we can squeeze 100 points out of this one...

Short 1/4 size, 1.39 EUR/USD

More of a trend trade, stops above 1.396, looking for a bigger move down. Won't be adding to the position, keeping it small but with a larger TP. Currently, TP is set at 1.3725

USD/CAD next on the chopping block...

...as posted yesterday, I'm keeping an eye on the USD/CAD around 1.147 for a short. The UK session is a couple of hours away and we'll see which direction USD wants to go. A continued rally could bring the USD/CAD short idea into range tonight.

Call alerts set.

EUR/USD, 1.34

Watching this level again. Could be several days or a couple of weeks off but I want to go ahead and post it up. Definitely one of those STRONG levels that I would like to get a full size trade wrapped up in.

Some morning action...

Played a small hourly downtrend on the GBP/USD this morning, right after US markets opened the doors. 1/2 size trade from 1.6385, closed a few minutes later for +30

Was then waiting for my GBP/USD levels to come about and the EUR/USD dumped down to 1.3815, just above the 1.38 level that I've had on my watch list for a good week or two now. After touching 1.3815, it bounced some 35-40 points upwards. This move SHOULD have negated any further 1.38 action but stubborn me, I went ahead and took a "bargain" long after it came back down to 1.3785. This was closed a few minutes later when we saw a pop up above 1.38 for 15 points on a half size position. My stops were placed 20 points below my entry and, before spread, I was at about 1:1 risk/reward...but nonetheless, this was a trade I should have stayed out of.

GBP/USD came down nicely and touched 1.6243, at which time I was preoccupied and wasn't around to take the trade. Disappointing...from top to bottom, it's run 60+ points and may continue higher, depending on oil, equities and other things I don't concern myself with.

I'm at +2% for the month, looking to hit my goal of +3%. One or two more quality trades and I'm there...need to remain patient and smart, keeping any euphoria in check.

USD/CAD is next on the chopping block if USD bulls can continue their move. 1.147 is what I'm watching for a short.

What I'm watching this week...

Support on the GBP/USD along with a fib agreement nearby & resistance on USD/CAD. Props to BRV for the heads up on the GBP/USD support. I had sighted the USD/CAD resistance last week and it looks like it may come to test it in the next couple of days.

GBP/USD:



USD/CAD:

Some follow-up from last night's EUR/USD post...

Came down nicely after tapping my first area of selling around 1.405.

Not going to take this, just posting it up.

Will follow-up on it tomorrow. I'd short it around 1.405-1.407, stops above 1.41.

EUR/USD short closed for +25 on half size position.

Short EUR/USD 1.3996

Playing the break of 1.40, retrace and looking for a continuation.  Stops set above hourly spike high @ 1.402, looking for 50points.  Half size position.

1.38 Next on the EUR/USD Chopping Block

Past daily support and 38% fib. We've seen some nice breakdown from yesterday's EUR/USD trade that was closed out early but not until this morning's NYC session. Last night's UK session provided a lot of chop and the high spike would have taken out my stop by 1-3 pips. That being said, price has now moved back in my direction to about 150 points and I expect it to continue downwards to the 1.38 zone where I'll play the bounce.

EUR/USD closed for +35 points, full size position

Cutting it early, yes.  I'm going to use the excuse that we're in no man's land in terms of market time.  Watch the trade run anothe 50+ points in my direction.  It always happens.

Short EUR/USD @ 1.4085-1.4095

Full size short on, looking for 50 points with the option to take half off and let the rest run to 100.   I was busy a few hours earlier and missed the 1.405 reaction.   Risk is about 1:1, keeping a wider stop to allow for some room...61% fib not far above 1.41 and the entire area is a nice area of resistance.  Running out of time in the US session though, looks like we'll be waiting until the Japanese begin trading to see more movement unless this thing falls off in the next 40 minutes.

I like this...

...and I'm really not a big fan of the theory/hindsight/etc of trading. I feel there are FAR too many people out there "theoretically" trading and not REALLY trading. Too much advice, too little money on the line.

BUT!

Steve aka BRV aka No Brainer Trades posted up something yesterday that I found insightful. Maybe I'm a bit biased as I know Steve actively trades, has actively traded for several years now, not to mention has started and played an active role in the No Brainer Trades thread over at Forex Factory, with more than 1 million views in just over a year...anyway, his "AAA" article is a good read. Check it out:

http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2009/06/aaa-missing-link.html

Action Action Action. Self confidence...I do know what I'm doing. I do know what I'm doing. I do know..................

Watching EUR/USD & USD/CHF

Upcoming levels, I have my eye on 1.4055-1.4070 EUR/USD for shorts and 1.3720 for longs.

USD/CHF, watching for shorts around 1.105 & 1.115

EUR/USD below...



and the USD/CHF...

A couple quick trades this morning...

Shorted eur/usd at 1.42 for 10 points on a 1/3 size position. Loned usd/cad at 1.0955 for 10 points on a scaled full size position. A little ancy and I wanted action, got it and left.

Ending balance at -7.9
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Looking forward...

We have .8500 coming up on the AUD/USD, a great weekly level which clearly worked as past support and resistance. Screenshot below.



And then another look at the EUR/USD 1.4365-1.44 level. If we see meaningful ie 60+ point move down from highs tonight, this may be voided. Otherwise, if price action continues upwards, it may provide a quality short, looking for 100+ points.

Closed EUR/USD Shorts, Will look to re-enter

I only got one 1/10 size short in and closed earlier this afternoon for +25. I'll keep an eye on price and may look to re-enter if we take it back up towards 1.44

As for yesterday's trade watch, price only got down to 1.41 (was looking for 1.405-1.40 to enter long) before moving back up.

I'll watch for long possibilities again tonight but would like to see a more meaningful retrace before going long.

Eur/usd shorts 143.65 to 1.44 range

A mess of resistance in this area that should provide a decent move down. Started scaling small positions at 143.25.
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What I'm watching...

I'm keeping an eye on the EUR/USD for a long bounce around 1.40-1.405. There is a bit of previous S&R and I'll be keeping with the uptrend.