End the week at -14.4 perc.

A little bummed but I've handled the losses well. Have a good weekend all.
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Left a limit sell in place at 1.42 eur/usd

and was stopped out for -25 on x2 full size. An accident and it sucks.

Sorry for the late update,

EUR/USD long from 1.4019 was closed for +25 on x2 full size.

Watching today, not seeing much...eye on 1.412 EUR/USD for a short. 1.419 also looks nice.

A good read...

"LOSING MONEY TRADING FX (AND A SIMPLE SOLUTION)

by Steve W. on 10/20/2008 01:54:00 AM EST

We all know the statistic, and it’s not a pretty one. According to CRB, “Ninety-two percent of day traders trying to scalp lose money. Only eight percent are successful. Out of the eight percent, only two percent of the day trading public makes money on a consistent basis.” Why then, when these numbers are so widely publicized, would so many newer traders come into the market each and every day and try to earn a killing? It’s simple: economics. The majority of the human population is economically driven, and there’s no justice to go into the reasons as to why. It’s why lottery games where individuals have a 1 in 47 million chance of winning keep getting millions upon millions of people trying twice a week to hit the jackpot. People want money, and they want it now."

Read the rest below...

http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2008/10/you-lose-money-trading-fx.html

Next levels to watch...

EUR/USD short at 1.4120

USD/CHF long 107.85

Long EUR/USD 1.4019

Playing 61% fib and previous S&R. We came 4points from my TP at 1.4049 but did not take it out. We've now ranged down to 1.40...I'm holding this trade as it's a significant level and should provide a more meaningful reaction.

I will accept the loss in stride and move on to the next one if we can't make this happen.

1.407 long stopped out for -25 on x2 full size

Eur/usd long 1.407

And were just a few points away from my stop with price at 1.405....I'm a little frustrated with it. Strong level and I would have liked to have seen a move already.

Missed my usd/chf call alert/trade this morning, slept through it. I don't want to talk any more about that....hurts to see a well marked out level miss beacuse of sleep.
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Watching for a EUR/USD sell at 1.422

Previous support and 50% fib of the recent dump.

Looking back on this morning's EUR/USD long...

it looks that while 141.7 may have originally been nice area for a bounce, the earlier spike down to 141.82 should have been a red flag to my area. Nonetheless, it I'm not ruling this out as a poor trade but I should have been on the watch for the next up and coming level, at 1.414, which indeed provided the bounce I was looking for 30 points up @ 1.417.

Err, usd/chf next up
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Eur/usd long stopped out for -25 on x2 full size, longing 1.417.

1.407 is next on the list
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Eur/usd long watch around 141.70-60

No fib agreement but previous s'n'r
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For next week, 108.2 USD/CHF for a short

Watching USD/CAD 108.

Really want to see an entry around 107.8...may have missed this one.

UJ closed for 40points on x1 full size

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UJ short +30, stops to be

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I almost want to apologize for taking this trade..

..as it's not a straight S&R and more of a trend trade. I've said no more of these...but this one I am taking. Trend, resistance @ 95. and 50% fib. Taken as a x1 full size trade with a 30 point stop, t/p 60 points.



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...and it's SO tempting to play this pullback on the

EUR/USD in expectation of continued movement up. However, I'll be sticking to the plan and waiting for the next S&R to come up.

Nothing yet this week, tight range continues

And although we're due for a breakout soon, that breakout may be very violent and some levels may be negated. We don't want to be stepping in front of any trains :)

USD/CHF 108.-108.2, 61% fib

Another one to keep an eye on...getting call alerts set now.

Watching EUR/USD 1.405 tonight.

USD/CHF Short Level, 107.4-5

38% Fib and some previous S&R. This is a B trade but certainly not a bad one. Will keep an eye on it as it should correlate with a 1.405 level on the EUR/USD...I think.



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Watch list July 20-24, EUR/USD longs

Watching EUR/USD, for a bounce around 1.415. 1.405 is next if that doesn't fly.

I'm going to hold off on any eur/usd tonight

but USD/CHF looks to be setting up for a decent short around 108, previous support & 38% fib retracement of today's dump.

Now that we've finally had some movement...

I'm plotting out the EUR/USD, may look into something around the 61% fib retracement around 1.40

Watching EUR/USD 1.407 for a long bounce

If we can see a continued upwards movement on the EUR/USD, 1.407 may be a nice place to long for a bounce/continuation of the move up. However, I would really like to see a good 80-100 point move up and then retrace...the EUR needs to continue up to validate this.



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USD/CAD Watching

61.8% fib coming up @ 1.1145, some previous daily resistance in the area...I'm really looking for a bargain price here. Not liking the resistance as a whole, no clean match. It may be worth waiting this one out, and short the retrace when it comes. Watching for now

Usd/chf closed for +25 on x2full size
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Long usd/chf 107.45

Daily support, stops at 107.24. Could not ignore this trade, thought about it calmly....but I need to take it.
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Still watching nothing, giving this market room to breath...

We're seeing some bull EUR/USD action which I look to see continue. The pair has been in a tight range lately and will need to relieve the pressure by going one way or another. I don't want to be stepping in front of any trains and after the tight range we've seen the last couple of weeks, those trains will be moving fast. USD/CAD does have some more levels coming up below 1.12 but I'll likely stay out of those. Nothing looks clear right now.

Back to the waiting game :)

Nothing on the radar tonight...

...and likely not much for tomorrow unless we see some major moves during the UK session. Patience. We'll break out of this range soon and have some levels available.

:)

FEAR strikes again

USD/CAD moved up as expected. My b/e close worked out to be at +5 points. Pure and simple fear exit. Yuck.

Longed USD/CAD 1.1355

Closed @ b/e

It's a slow night on the EUR/USD front...

..however, USD/CAD is hinting at a couple of opportunities.

Forget 1.1475 that was posted earlier, that figure is now out of the window.

We have a stronger previous S&R figure @ 1.145. No fib confluence.

Next, we have 1.135, which does work with a 38% fib retracement.

See attachment below.

Usd/cad long watch 1.1475
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Looks like I'll be playing the waiting game

I'm not seeing anything worthy over the last 8 hours and we're really going to need some movement. Efore any of my watch levels are hit. The eur/usd and usd/chf are really the only two pairs that provide any sort of clean setups that I feel comfortable with. I'll be patient and wait it out...I only need a couple of quality trades a week.

Good morning :)
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Browsing now for setups for the week of July 13-17

EUR/USD is first up, watching for a long opportunity at 1.3825 & 1.374-5.

1.3825 is the weakest figure as we just saw a bounce last week. 1.374-5 is the preferred area to long, anticipating a meaningful move. See below.



USD/CHF is next up, watching for a long bounce around 106.5-3.

See below.



That's all for now.

I did long eur/usd at 1.40, saw a dump below and then closed at breakeven as we reapproached 1.40. Stops were in line at 1.3975 but were not tagged.
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E/U long watch 1.4

This market keeps moving...

...and drawing me back in, ready to short the next bounce zone.

Watching EUR/USD around 1.41...a whole mess of resistance. 1.415 is a cleaner area as it's a daily level and spike high. I may forget about 1.41 and just keep an eye in case 1.415 comes along.

Missed the EUR/USD spike...

by the time I got the call alert, price had already nicked 1.4049-50 and retraced 10pts. Looks good for 25 points thus far.

EUR/USD, watching for short at 1.405

Doubt we'll get there but if we see an equities rally, this looks like a nice area for a short.

EUR/USD TP hit for +25 on x2 full size.

Taking Setup, Short x2 full size EUR/USD 1.3998

USD/CHF 108. looks stronger :) 61% fib, long bounce

USD/CHF long @ 1.0820 range is another idea on the books...

...this level looks like it may coincide with a 1.40 short. Just another idea and more ammunition to see USD bulls power back for a bit around this price level. Also 50% fib retracement.

Dave on the No Brainer Trades chat brought this up about an hour ago.

Official setup, EUR/USD sell 1.40

Entry will be made a few points shy of 1.40, likely 1.3995, stops at 1.425, t/p around 25 points or equal to risk. Chart referenced in previous post below.

Going into the London session...

...I'm really not seeing any defined levels to short the EUR or GBP from. There are small pockets of resistance around 1.394-5 and G/Y 1.614-5 but nothing that stands out as a reliable trade.

Looking further ahead, I will short the EUR/USD at 1.40. 50% fib of the recent decline is at 1.4014 and I would expect a respectable kickback around that level, especially with 1.4 being such a strong support level before.

Chart below...

"Depending on price action"

Regardless of it's validity, I'm sick of hearing this.

Some thought into keeping my weekly trade plans/setups...

...specific, controlled and tracked.

For example:

Setup 1 for this week is long E/U @ x

Setup 2 for this week is short G/U @ x

Setup 3 for this week is...

from there, I will track each trade...if I took it, the gain and loss, if I didn't take it, what would have been the gain/loss based on the proposed sl & tp.

out for coffee, more later...uk opens in two hours.

Call alert set for EUR/USD 1.3930 for short in 1.394-5 range

EUR/USD, watching 1.3785 - 38% fib agreement

Watching 1.38...just below it looks like a nice entry and we have the 38% fib level coming into play from april lows to june highs. I don't like how we just saw a nice 40 pont bounce off 1.383...but if I can score a lower 1.37 entry (1.379 or 85), it looks like it would be worth the trade.

Three weeks ago, I would take it with a half or full size trade and scale into the heavy support that we have just a little lower around 1.375...but here, I think I'll keep my stops tight and look to re-enter immediately if we blow 1.3785.

See chart below as to what I'm looking at on the daily...



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Had an entry limit for eur/usd 1.383, missed by two points.

On to 1.3745
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Had an entry limit for eur/usd 1.383, missed by two points.

On to 1.3745
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Eur/usd long closed for +20
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Long EUR/USD 1.3882

Stops @ 1.3855, TP 1.3925 x2 full size

If we see further eur/usd weakness/new lows, 1.3925 may be a short line
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Gu 163.25 for a short
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usd/cad 1.145-1.147 ?

EUR/USD long 1.3825 & 1.3745, I'm not seeing any shorts that really stand out.

For a bearish USD trade, I have a PICTURE perfect GBP/USD setup at 1.6420-30. Previous S&R and the 50% fib of the recent decline.

That's all for now. USD/CAD is still on the table but I'm really not liking how large that range of resistance (1.175-1.185) is. I'm looking to redfine my risk to keep my stoploss in the 30-40point range tops, in order to continue trading x2 full size.

Missed my EUR/USD short by 2points.

Add 108.3 USD/CHF on watch for long

Stopped for -15 on x2 full suze. Watching for 1.40 short
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Short x2 full size eur/usd 1.395
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Now watching eur usd 139.5 for a short. Will short again 140 or long 138.25
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Closed eur/usd long for +30 on x2 full size. Longed off 139. Support
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Got absolutely killed

longing gbp/usd a few minutes ago at the 1.62 support, out for -50 on x2 full size and another -20 and another -15 on the same size, attempting to revenge trade and then closing it down seconds after opening. That will put me down a good -4 to -5% to start the week.

More levels coming up on EUR/USD, watching. I truly believe GBP/USD is a total fake out just like last time when it blew the 1.66 top...but we'll see what happens. Hard stuff.

1.389 EUR/USD, will be getting in with x2 size.

PnL Updated, watch list for this week...

Down 2.5% from the previous week, ending at -10.5% since October 2008.

My downfall was again taking trades where I "thought" price was ready to come down. I need to stick to what works, trading purely S&R.

On the watch list for this week...

EUR/USD long at 1.3825-1.38, 1.3725-1.375

USD/CAD short at 1.175-1.185. A large range but one that should provide a meaningful bounce.

USD/CHF short 1.10 or long 106.

GBP/USD long 1.62

That's all for now...USD/JPY may provide a bounce around 95. or again at 97 but the levels aren't as strong as I would prefer.

USD/CHF stopped at breakeven

USD/CHF Follow-up...

I've moved stops to breakeven...with the time of day, no Asian markets open yet, I'll protect capital and be patient for now. Now that we've had a move, we're surrounded by great levels on the EUR/USD (short at 1.40 or long at 1.38, 1.375, etc) and there are sure to be some opportunities tonight and possibly tomorrow morning through the US session.

I'll edit this post when I'm either stopped out, which I would believe is coming soon.

Short USD/CHF full size 108.9 - 61% fib and resistance

Looking to see it drift lower as we hit the Asian session. EUR/USD coming down nicely to some support levels that should help coincide with a bounce.



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I longed EUR/USD a second time, moved stops to B/E...

...and was taken out, just by a point before moving up and making hourly highs. I'll Be interested to see if it continues up as expected...it should, this 1.40 support provided quite a bounce last time around and I would expect to see at least 40-60 points out of this.

EUR/USD Long off 1.40 closed for +25

Didn't get an entry until 1.4009, actual gains after spread were only +20 on a full size long.

USD/CHF Short Stopped for -60points

on a half size position. Unfortunate but I'm glad that I wasn't awake to add to the position. I guess there just wasn't quite enough market agreement with the 108. figure.

I'm watching the EUR/USD now for a bounce at 1.40 but it doesn't look like it wants to quite get down there yet.

I missed the USD/JPY 97. sell yesterday. I'm irritated about that...I had a call alert set and must have deleted it.

That's all for now. We're still positive for July and I need to be sticking strictly to the S&R trades, trading off the support or resistance line ONLY and not taking the trending, "candles look ready to fall" sort of trades. I pulled hard for 4% of gains over the last few weeks only to piss it away in non-S&R trades in a few days.

I went ahead and shorted USD/CHF at 107.65

with a half size short, candles say this is ready to head lower and we did touch the first bits of resistance. Will look to add if we head higher to 108.

USD/CHF, watching for a sell @ 108 or long bounce @ 106 range

Eur/gbp closed for +25

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EUR/GBP for a short at 85.93, Full Size

Great daily top level and one that should allow me to keep stops fairly close.

Looking for 30-40 points on this. EUR/GBP doesn't have much of a range which means a couple of things: stops don't need to be as wide but as a consequence, the most I could really get out of this is 100-120points and that's pushing it.



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USD/CAD Bounce

I was busy and missed this one, looks good thus far for 30+ points and should be a nice runner for a few more.