Watch list for the this week...

...I hope everyone had a great Holiday.

Turning to the charts, the USD/CAD has my attention. I've identified support and resistance on the chart below, as well as the short term upward moving trend line. If you take a look at the daily chart, you can clearly see the upward moving trend line that price bounced off last week. I'm open for both a continuation and retest of 1.30 or a break below and dump back to 1.15.

I wouldn't mind shorting a gap up today, as long as the 1.2475/1.25 support is respected. Otherwise, we should be gearing up for some movement in one direction or the other this week.

Thoughts??

As for the EUR/USD, I don't know...I was looking for a breakout last week that didn't happen..and instead, we fell through what I saw as support at 1.28...I now see it sitting on a moving average on the daily at 1.27 and I'm thinking we may just see some range movement between 1.24 and 1.31, much like we saw after the huge run to 1.60 earlier this year. I'll be on the sidelines unless the pair is at an extreme support or resistance but will be watching for any possible gap plays on the pair this afternoon.

Quick EUR & GBP/USD Longs...

...off the 1.28 and 1.52 support.

Closed for 25 & 75 points.

Will keep an eye on to re-enter at a later date.

Ended the week at -7.5%. Battled back from being down nearly 9% with more overtrading & emotional issues on Tuesday.

I'm reducing my standard trade size back down to about what I traded with my previous account...shooting for a .5-1% gain per trade and allowing for wider stops to accommodate this market's volatility. I'll be making more use of scaling in on the larger based trades.

The balance will come, I'm positive and upbeat about this...just need to hang in there a little longer and continue to get readjusted.

We still have a breakout setup on the EUR/USD which I will be following next week and probably into the following.

Have a good weekend!

Good Evening...

...scaled into some EUR/USD shorts and USD/CAD longs this morning. I've closed some of the earlier poor entry positions at breakeven and remain with a couple small entries (1k lot). EUR/USD is sporting a +120point lead while the USD/CAD long is nearly +200. I just entered a second USD/CAD long (2k) just above 1.23. I'm looking to see this test and break 1.24 and I look to see the EUR/USD return to 1.23-1.24. I will add additional EUR shorts as we break the 1.26 level.

I'm keeping my eye on the NZD/USD for a short at the 55.5 level to see it break support at 55 and head down to test 54.

USD/JPY closed for +46...

...wedge forming and I'll stay out until the top of the range comes. Very possible to see a swing to the upside.

Good morning..

...I've added a couple of positions.

Long USD/CAD with 1k @ 1.2322

Short EUR/USD with 2k @ 1.2644

USD/JPY is +50 but we really need to break 96 to see lower lows.

USD/CAD

Also keeping an eye on this pair...will wait for the gap to fill before scaling in longs below 1.23...support at 1.21

Test - U/J

Test

GBP/USD trade closed for +30

...added another 5k to the GBP/USD trade at 1.4742

...looking to get out at 1.478

Watchlist for the week of 11/17/08...

...What a gap on the EUR/USD & GBP/USD! I'm long right now on the GBP/USD at 1.4751, seeing if we can get some movement upwards to close this gap. A small 5k trade with a close stop. I'll keep an eye on the EUR to see if we can also get some movement back up in order to go short for the next leg down. Obvious resistance at the 1.28ish area.

Also watching the NZD/USD. There is a nice downtrend channel on the hourly and it looks like it will be coming down to make a double bottom and then break to new lows. The NZD also gapped down and I'm looking to see if we can get some movement back up to the 1.56 or higher range in order to go short. 1.565 looks to be the immediate resistance in this hourly downtrend while 1.58 price range will provide resistance on the daily charts.

On the USD/JPY, I look to see the downtrend continue...very clear on the hourly and the daily. I went ahead and entered short with small 2k lot at 96.92 and will scale in as we get close to the 97.5 and 98 mark. As for a void to this trade...I strong move above 98 will likely lead to me closing it while a break above 99 work confirm the void. I'll look to add another 2k as we break below 96.

That's all for now.

Ugh.

Had a horrible bit of emotionally driven trading just a few minutes ago...small scalp drew me for my largest loss yet.

Ending balance now at -6.1%

I'll be taking a few days off :) Catch you next week.

Just closed a few scaled USD/CAD longs out for losses...there is no movement on the majors right now and I'm not sure exactly what's going on.

account balance ending @ -1.7%

Review of this morning's trades...

...started at 2am pst shorting the gbp moves to new lows. Scaled in several times and was in the green but could not get out of the way fast enough when the retrace came. Closed all of the scaled trades for a loss of 1 percent. Secondly, I was scaled into the usd/cad on the break of 1.21. This provided my return of balance when the scaled longs were closed out for 40-60points each.

Account balance now remains much as it did yesterday at -1.3%

All positions are now closed...

+130 points on the EUR in addition to +10 and +50 on the two smaller lots
+34 points on the USD/CAD long
+27 points on the NZD/USD short

I will wait for the break of 1.25 to re-enter short on the EUR/USD. I'm also keeping an eye on the GBP/USD for a short breakout.

Short EUR/USD @ 1.2663

Closed three trades early for a total of -30points between last night and this morning. Most were based on false breaks, one longer term USD/CAD trade.

Caught the correct breakout this morning and have been short the EUR/USD since 1.2663. Unfortunately, we have several lines of support coming in the future yet I'll do my best to hold on to this for a full blown breakout, looking for new lows.

As the account stands right now, I'm at -3.6%, not including unrealized profits.

Still watching for the GBP and EUR breakdowns...

...-25 points in two trades, playing false breaks.

Patience...it's coming.

For Monday, 10/10/08...

...I'll be watching for the obvious breakout setups that we have on the EUR/USD & GBP/USD.

I took a quick break of support short on the GBP/USD a few minutes ago, pulling in a quick 10 points.

Balance, P/L Update

I'm five weeks into my goal of producing 5% account gains by 1/1/09. Ended the week -2.7%.

A screenshot of my current balance and P/L is below.

Have a good weekend!

Was on the road and missed my EUR breakout...was hoping to see a retracement back up to 1.29 but it looks long gone right now. I'll keep tabs on it...

**Also, took a second EUR short earlier and closed it early for -7 points. It was a good entry but the pair still had a bit more retracement left in it and I didn't want to widen my stops.

E/U closed for +85 points, another trade in the works...

Another breakout forming...this one will be more critical and significant if it is to the downside as we'll be breaking the uptrend over the last few days.

I'm trying to hold onto this EUR/USD for further downside progress...we're +80 points right now. 1.29 should provide hard support as we meet the upward trendline. Break that and I should be good for 150-200 points, if not more. Otherwise, I expect a hard bounce in which I'll look to book 80-100points and look for a possible re-entry later.

E/U

I went short, long & am short again with one loss (-25), one win (+16) and an on-going win with my recent short from top of the downward trendline @ 1.3019...really trying to hold this for a break to new lows. +35 points right now on a 5k lot.

EUR/USD

Closed the first short down at +3 points in an effort to get a better entry. Price dropped pretty quickly after that and I'm now watching for a short op on the break of 1.30...

Short EUR/USD @ 1.3082

Looking to see some downward movement. Scaled in first with a 2k lot...will scale in another 1 or 2k if we continue a ways higher. Not looking for any sustained movement above 1.31 (1.315). This would be my cue to get out.

I think this could be good for 150-200 points, if not more.

NZD/USD reversed long stopped out...

....-25 points.

Closed the NZD/USD short for -23 points, broke out North against me.

Reversed the trade and went long, 5k size, at .6060. S/L set below the top of the old range...see if we can get this thing moving up.

Short NZD/USD again...

...playing the triangle/wedge we have going here. Looking for a break below...

Went short for a quick 16 points...turned around for a false break.  I'll keep watching.

Also...NZD/USD

Possible triangle setting up...some support at the 38% of the recent ride up.  Looking to see a test of this support and then break to the upside, on to make new highs.

Folllowing up on that AUD/USD triangle that was setting it up...looks like it failed and I'm on the sidelines with that pair for the time being.

I'm watching the USD/JPY as we have a nice upward trending channel going and I believe we will peak above 100 again tonight/tomorrow.  Right now I'm trying to score an entry below .995, close to the upward moving trendline.  This trade will be a smaller 3k lot size as I want to allow for a larger stoploss, below .984.

Setup on the AUD/USD

Triangle breakout setting up...will need to break above resist (double top) @ .7 or may see some retrace to the downside...I don't think I'll be able to play this though, looks like it will blow in the next hour or two.