I like the double top on the EUR/USD but don't have the balls to short it. Will look to get long as we approach the support (154, I believe?)...maybe stagger some small longs @ 1.56 and look to get heavy as we come down to support. Targeting at least the resistance line @ 1.58 and may hold on to some for a break above and run up to 160, etc. Not sure. Not a EUR/USD trader but the technicals give me some comfort right now, in addition to my thoughts of further US econ weakness.
And...also looking to get long on the GBP/USD, if we can get a pullback to support (around 198 IMO)...may stagger longs starting at 1985, 198 and perhaps again at 1975...need to look at the charts a bit more to come up with a support figure. But I do believe it's due for some pullback and already this morning it fell below the 199 figure.
Thoughts? I know I'm getting at least a few page views...one coming in from New Zealand. Cool! And speaking of NZ, I know I was talking about setting up a short for the NZD/USD last week...but I was waiting for some more NZD strength to come about to get a nice short entry. Well, I may have missed it early this morning on the run to .765...but it may head back up to about .77 which would be most ideal with the downward trendline. Anyway, I'll keep watching. USD weakness could offer me my ideal price. I'll look more later.
Monday, June 30, 2008
More on Sunday 6/29/08 Gaps
I checked over the major pairs this morning and there really wasn't much. Even the EUR/USD gap that I played probably should have been left alone, as it was pretty small. In the other pairs, it didn't look like anything was more than 15 pips, if that. A lot of smaller 10 pip gaps, all of which closed quickly.
On the EUR/USD gap trade yesterday, the first one was stopped out. The stop was far too close to the entry but my thinking was that if I get stopped, fine, I'll re-enter on the next support @ 75. Well, I was stopped out but due to a random spike, one that didn't even show up on the 5 min chart. So...lesson learned, I went ahead and entered again at about the same price and took some gain on the gap closing a couple of hours later. The problem with trading after the open is the spread is big...I believe it was 8-10 pips last night (Oanda)? So with being stopped out, the loss was around 15 pips. And of course when I took profit, there was only +6 pips. Net is -9 pips.
To sum it up, second chances are hard to get in the gaps and my stop was far too tight. My mentality was not set to accommodate the larger spread. Secondly, if I would have kept the spread in mind, the total possible pips on that gap was less than 15 pips and probably should not have been traded in the first place. Ah well.
Nonetheless, it was good to see the gaps fill, no matter how small they were.
Good morning :)
On the EUR/USD gap trade yesterday, the first one was stopped out. The stop was far too close to the entry but my thinking was that if I get stopped, fine, I'll re-enter on the next support @ 75. Well, I was stopped out but due to a random spike, one that didn't even show up on the 5 min chart. So...lesson learned, I went ahead and entered again at about the same price and took some gain on the gap closing a couple of hours later. The problem with trading after the open is the spread is big...I believe it was 8-10 pips last night (Oanda)? So with being stopped out, the loss was around 15 pips. And of course when I took profit, there was only +6 pips. Net is -9 pips.
To sum it up, second chances are hard to get in the gaps and my stop was far too tight. My mentality was not set to accommodate the larger spread. Secondly, if I would have kept the spread in mind, the total possible pips on that gap was less than 15 pips and probably should not have been traded in the first place. Ah well.
Nonetheless, it was good to see the gaps fill, no matter how small they were.
Good morning :)
Sunday, June 29, 2008
EUR/USD gap trade closed for 6pips. Lousy but...it worked.
The screenshot shows the original entry and subsequent stop out (red circle) as well as the second entry with take profit (green circle). Keep in mind there was a pretty killer spread of 10 pips...so when the trade was closed, it was actually closing at the gap close price level. Make sense?
I take that back on the U/J gap...
....doesn't look like it was a real gap overall. It does look like it opened a bit higher...but from there, moved on it's own...it did not really just open high.
I'll look at it later.
The EUR/USD gap trade (TAKE TWO) is looking OK right now, up a few pips. Looks like this thing will be ready to close in the next couple of hours. Stop is still set below the 75 "support" @ about 65ish. I'll try and get a screenshot here in a little bit.
I'll look at it later.
The EUR/USD gap trade (TAKE TWO) is looking OK right now, up a few pips. Looks like this thing will be ready to close in the next couple of hours. Stop is still set below the 75 "support" @ about 65ish. I'll try and get a screenshot here in a little bit.
EUR/USD Gap
Went long just above the 1.5775 point, looking to fill this 20pip gap. S/L is tight just below 1.5775. May go long again at 1.575 if we get that drop.
The screenshot shows the entry (blue triangle).
Sunday Gaps 6/29/08..
...just getting up and going this afternoon. Thus far. EUR/USD is gapped down 25 pips & USD/JPY has begun to gap upwards. GBP/JPY also has some upward movement of about 15 pips...coming up on the 212. level...might be a place to get short at.
USD/JPY will be my main focus.
Friday, June 27, 2008
Trending ops for next week, position sizes, etc.
...also watching the AUD/USD for a pullback long. Maybe we can get something next week...looking to enter around .95 or lower and play the long upwards as we did last week.
**Will also keep tuned on the EUR/USD, as it's seems to be in a little bit of a range and I'm a fan of those types of trades. Let's see if it can form a tripple top here and dive back down to the support range...that or break upwards and on to make new highs. I'm looking for more of a range trade though & not looking to play upward movement. But with a weak dollar coming, eh, I don't know if we'll get that chance. Let's watch! :)
Also, one thing I need to work on is making my position sizes more consistent. Right now, I'm using variable lot sizes, sort of depending on my confidence or because of staggered entries. I think staggered entries will still require varied lot sizes but otherwise, trades need to be of the same size. So...I'll work on implementing this over the coming weeks and because of such, I may encounter bigger drawdowns if any of my first few "more consistent lot" trades are losers. But, granted I keep consistent with my trade sizes, the wins will come back and take over the running P/L.
The account is up +6.4% this year, down .2% from last week with the GBP/USD trade loss from yesterday morning.
**Will also keep tuned on the EUR/USD, as it's seems to be in a little bit of a range and I'm a fan of those types of trades. Let's see if it can form a tripple top here and dive back down to the support range...that or break upwards and on to make new highs. I'm looking for more of a range trade though & not looking to play upward movement. But with a weak dollar coming, eh, I don't know if we'll get that chance. Let's watch! :)
Also, one thing I need to work on is making my position sizes more consistent. Right now, I'm using variable lot sizes, sort of depending on my confidence or because of staggered entries. I think staggered entries will still require varied lot sizes but otherwise, trades need to be of the same size. So...I'll work on implementing this over the coming weeks and because of such, I may encounter bigger drawdowns if any of my first few "more consistent lot" trades are losers. But, granted I keep consistent with my trade sizes, the wins will come back and take over the running P/L.
The account is up +6.4% this year, down .2% from last week with the GBP/USD trade loss from yesterday morning.
Screenshot of the market sell on G/U
Showing my stoploss hits (red circle) from yesterday morning and then my subsequent market sell & T/P being hit (green circle).
G/U trade...
...well, the short worked out big thanks to the adjusted T/P. T/P was hit overnight and we've regained the majority of our losses from yesterday morning. The pair bounced pretty hard off the 1.98 level(old resistance, new support?). If we weren't going into the weekend, I'd almost be temped to go short again (also a bounce off that near 199 level).
Anyway, more later. Good Morning :)
Thursday, June 26, 2008
T/P & S/L adjusted on the G/U short..
...pulled it up to 19813. Stop moved to just above break even. If we visit north of 199, the original trade idea is off and I'll look to prepare for a break out (long) trade.
Total loss on this mornings S/L was at -1.1%, trade update, ideas
I'll update the total 2008 profit/loss tomorrow.
The market sell entered this morning is still in place...and I'm waiting patiently for it to develop.
Also, I'm keeping an eye on this NZD/USD...nice little downtrend that looks as it might fall further. There is some event risk coming soon. I'll keep watching for now.
More on the G/U
And here is what I'm looking at on the G/U and what that market sell was based on - the resistance at 1.99. If this doesn't hold, I'm letting go of the G/U. My S/L is at aboutj 1.996 or so, and I'm targeting a drop back to the middle of the range...1.965-1.97 or so.
And I'm still trying to figure out why this thing burst upwards like it did...reading some about the US rates staying the same and sentiment going with the fact that the US may not raise rates any time soon...? Not seeing much else? Comments?
We'll check up soon. I'm not looking to close this trade early. This is not a revenge trade...it's a trade that's going with the original trade plan, just a higher end entry. I do not, however, plan to keep the trade open over the weekend.
The loss from the stop out earlier this morning looks to be about 1% of the account. I'll confirm and post later.
Good morning :)
And I'm still trying to figure out why this thing burst upwards like it did...reading some about the US rates staying the same and sentiment going with the fact that the US may not raise rates any time soon...? Not seeing much else? Comments?
We'll check up soon. I'm not looking to close this trade early. This is not a revenge trade...it's a trade that's going with the original trade plan, just a higher end entry. I do not, however, plan to keep the trade open over the weekend.
The loss from the stop out earlier this morning looks to be about 1% of the account. I'll confirm and post later.
Good morning :)
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Limit Sells set on G/U
Evening,
I went ahead and set some limit sells on the G/U this morning, looking to place the same 1.98-1.985 resistance top that we've had over the last few weeks. It's been trending upwards nicely on the hourly. R/R at about 1:2.
Gaps in the majors from Sunday June 22
GBP/JPY had a nice 40pip gap that filled in the first couple of hours.
GBP/USD had a little 25 pip gap that came within 8 pips of being filled but did not close.
USD/JPY had a smaller 15 pip gap that closed within the first couple of hours.
Monday, June 23, 2008
GBP Gap Follow-up
Just looking over the chart again, there was some obvious strong dollar movement over night...not sure on the GBP gap and why/what/etc...but it certainly did not fill.
For whatever reason, overall, I seem to like the JPY gaps the best. The USD/JPY & the EUR/JPY both had nice gaps that filled quickly. This is the 5th Sunday gap that I've tracked with the USD/JPY that has filled.
I'll run through later and update the other gaps that filled/didn't fill. But in regards to the pound, it just looks like some strong dollar strength came in with the market open and did not stop. Not sure what else to say about this...but the 1.97 mark, while a very wide S/L, was certainly a last straw and as that was broken, we pretty much confirmed the gap would not be closing within the first 12 hours. Now, as the GBP/USD is in a range, that gap may eventually close...but right now, for all intensive purposes, it did not.
Anyway, it was a riskier trade and I knew that from the start. There was no tested support nearby to rely on and in the real world, we would have probably passed on this trade.
Meanwhile, the GBP/USD has continued downwards and broken 1.96...we may be setting up for a long later this week to play the range?
Good morning:)
For whatever reason, overall, I seem to like the JPY gaps the best. The USD/JPY & the EUR/JPY both had nice gaps that filled quickly. This is the 5th Sunday gap that I've tracked with the USD/JPY that has filled.
I'll run through later and update the other gaps that filled/didn't fill. But in regards to the pound, it just looks like some strong dollar strength came in with the market open and did not stop. Not sure what else to say about this...but the 1.97 mark, while a very wide S/L, was certainly a last straw and as that was broken, we pretty much confirmed the gap would not be closing within the first 12 hours. Now, as the GBP/USD is in a range, that gap may eventually close...but right now, for all intensive purposes, it did not.
Anyway, it was a riskier trade and I knew that from the start. There was no tested support nearby to rely on and in the real world, we would have probably passed on this trade.
Meanwhile, the GBP/USD has continued downwards and broken 1.96...we may be setting up for a long later this week to play the range?
Good morning:)
GBP/USD gap failure...
...1.97 did not hold and I was stopped out shortly thereafter. Will take another look at it in the morning.
Sunday, June 22, 2008
Sunday Gap Plays...
...in a smaller "test" account, I went ahead and longed the USD/JPY gap for about 20 pips. It closed within a couple of hours and the pips were banked.
I also took a look at a riskier gap, the GBP/USD. When I originally saw it, it looked as though it had bottomed out at 1.9733 and was moving back up to close the gap. I went long at 1.9753, looking for the gap to close around 1.965. This was a riskier gap as I don't really watch the pound gaps like I do the USD/JPY and we had fallen below the 1.975 price level. After going long, the pound failed to stay above 1.975 and has fallen back down.
In the real world, I would cancel this trade...more so, I would have never taken it in the first place. But, I'm going to give it MORE room to breath, as I notice the 1.97 support looks to be decent. So, we'll see what happens. I got long with another few units at 1.9718.
S/L set below 1.97
Thursday, June 19, 2008
Keeping an eye on the GBP/USD...
...it's moving upwards. I'll look to be setting up staggard shorts around the 1.98 & 1.985 resistance levels.
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
AUD/USD
The pair has continued on it's trend as originally expected. My long below .94 was never hit and I've since canceled the order.
I'll continue to watch this one but it looks like I missed the boat. I could go long on a pullback but I'd rather stick to more important support levels/pullback on a major trend (like the one at .94 two days ago) instead of messing with the smaller hourly trends.
I am looking forward to the Sunday gap plays this weekend...trying to find more info on these gaps as well as build a track history of certain pairs, their gap sizes, etc.
Good afternoon :)
AUD/USD S/L hit
overnight. Bounced a bit after coming down to nearly .94. I canceled the first limit order at .9403 but have left the long order at .935 in place.
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
AUD/USD stop moved to B/E
I still believe in the trade overall but have moved the stop to breakeven and will look to score a better long position as well as increase my position size. Limit buys set again at .9403 & .935. A serious break and hold below .9335 will put a hold on this trend and make me take a second look at the situation.
The screenshot shows the +/- pips thus far on the trade as well as the adjusted S/L & entry point.
AUD/USD update 2
Still chugging along, was up nearly 40pips at the high, it's due for a little retrace now and should be on it's way back up soon. It seems the test of resistance @ .945 helped the bounce back. After .945, I'm looking at .9475 & .95 to be the next points of resistance.
We're clear of any big moving news for both sides of this pair through the rest of the week which I see as encouragement for the uptrend.
We're clear of any big moving news for both sides of this pair through the rest of the week which I see as encouragement for the uptrend.
AUD/USD update...
...not a lot of direction right now. News overnight didn't rock the pair too much but the original limit long @ .9403 would have certainly been a better fill than the market order @ .9416
Important USD news this morning...the Q1 account deficit widened to 176.4bln (4bln more than expected) & housing starts were 5k less than expected.
AUD/USD is coming up on the daily high right now @ .9433ish...I'm looking for a nice strong move upwards to continue this little uptrend.
Tomorrow seems relatively news free for the AUD & USD. Thursday brings some USD news and Friday is again quiet.
Good morning!
Important USD news this morning...the Q1 account deficit widened to 176.4bln (4bln more than expected) & housing starts were 5k less than expected.
AUD/USD is coming up on the daily high right now @ .9433ish...I'm looking for a nice strong move upwards to continue this little uptrend.
Tomorrow seems relatively news free for the AUD & USD. Thursday brings some USD news and Friday is again quiet.
Good morning!
Monday, June 16, 2008
Long AUD/USD - Market Order
...I called off the first limit long and just went long now with a market order @ .9416. Same stop and profit takes as posted below.
Limit longs set on AUD/USD...
...looking to hop on the upwards trend line on the daily with a small position or two. Limit longs set at .9403 & .9375. S/L is at .9340 and T/P is .9640.
Both orders are quite small as I don't trade this pair often, don't know it, don't feel very comfortable, etc. Risk management is in place.
I'll catch up early tomorrow morning! Good evening :)
Sunday, June 15, 2008
Sunday Gaps, Weekly Trade Ideas
Nothing big but a nice USD/JPY 20pip gap that was filled, a couple smaller gaps on the GBP/USD & GBP/JPY.
For trading, I'll continue to watch the GBP/USD to see if we can get a breakout to the downside.
For trading, I'll continue to watch the GBP/USD to see if we can get a breakout to the downside.
Friday, June 13, 2008
End of the week!
The support @ 1.945 held for the GBP/USD. Next week should be interesting.
Bumped the annual return up a little this week with the GBP/USD long. Even though the trade did not work out as planned, I was still able to pull a few pips out of it. +6.6% for the year.
Have a good weekend and I'll catch up on Sunday for market open gap plays.
Bumped the annual return up a little this week with the GBP/USD long. Even though the trade did not work out as planned, I was still able to pull a few pips out of it. +6.6% for the year.
Have a good weekend and I'll catch up on Sunday for market open gap plays.
Thursday, June 12, 2008
Support holding @ 1.945 (GBP/USD) but...
...doesn't look like it will for much longer. It's been tested four times on the 15 minute (more clearly shown on the 5 min) chart and it looks like this thing is going to fall through to at least 1.94.
I will not trade this as I see it as a much higher risk setup, especially when going into the weekend.
The chart shows the contact points with the 1.945 line...let's watch this thing fall through.
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
About time to close the GBP/USD out...
I'll be looking to close out of this GBP trade in the next three hours or so. 1.965 held pretty nicely and I don't want the possible good US retail news tomorrow to screw up my long GBP/USD trade. The rising oil helped me today and I'll take my 70pips and wait for things to settle tomorrow.
Afternoon follow-up on the GBP/USD long...
...the GBP/USD trade from earlier this morning is meeting resistance at 1.965. You can see on the 15 minute that price struggled three times to overcome the resistance but could not and it now looks like it's falling back some.
Let's see what happens!
Let's see what happens!
Long GBP/USD Triggered
The 1.9512 long was triggered on a spike down overnight (in response to UK trade news?). The spike quickly recovered and we're now sitting at +100 pips. The second limit long was cancelled and the stop has been moved up to +50pips.
T/P is set at 1.974
Good morning!
T/P is set at 1.974
Good morning!
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
Scaled limit longs on the GBP/USD
Scaled limit longs set @ 1.9512 (S/L @ 1.938, T/P 1.974) & 1.9465 (S/L 1.938, T/P @ 1.974).
1:2 Risk/Reward w/1.7% account risk
1:2 Risk/Reward w/1.7% account risk
Looking to get long in the GBP/USD range...
I'm starting to like this setup for a range GBP/USD trade.
Daily support at 1.95 or a little below (rising trendline).
Hard support on 1.945 & 1.94. A break and hold below would signal a fallout to the downside.
Upper resistance at 1.975 (falling trendline).
Harder resistance on 1.98 & focused on 1.985. A break and hold above would signal a strong up move.
The range still looks like it has some life in it. My concerns are on how the fundementals (news) may impact the technical setup. We have important news coming for both the GBP & the USD.
Daily below, showing the overall triangle & support/resistance levels...
Below is the hourly close-up...
Monday, June 9, 2008
More follow-up on notable Sunday (6/8/08) Gaps
AUD/USD had a 15 pip gap, filled
GBP/JPY had a 100+ pip gap, filled.
NZD/USD had a smaller 10-12 pip gap, partially filled within three hours and then fully filled later on. Usually, I will not take notice of smaller gaps like this but went ahead and pointed it out anyway.
Gaps of 20pips-60pips are usually what grabs my attention. 100+ are nice but increase the risk.
GBP/JPY had a 100+ pip gap, filled.
NZD/USD had a smaller 10-12 pip gap, partially filled within three hours and then fully filled later on. Usually, I will not take notice of smaller gaps like this but went ahead and pointed it out anyway.
Gaps of 20pips-60pips are usually what grabs my attention. 100+ are nice but increase the risk.
E/J trades are out of the question right now. Looks to be hitting resistance above 167 but I will not be going short anytime soon. It's never fun trying to fight EUR strength.
I'm watching the GBP/USD, trying to keep an open mind and am looking to either short at 1.985 resist test or go long on the break of. The US fundies aren't helping much but on the other side, the UK isn't doing much better.
Trying to wait for some trending to come along...nothing as of yet. Talks of EUR/USD getting geared up for another big run up but I don't really like to trade this pair. Bigger moves and a little too crazy for me.
Also keeping an eye on AUD/USD...lots of talk about this hitting parity & I think it will happen. Just need to score a nice entry and be ready to wait.
As far as gap plays yesterday afternoon, USD/JPY & EUR/JPY both had nice 50+ pip gaps that were filled. USD/JPY had a similar 50 pip gap last Sunday that also filled. I'll continue to try and track these and if possible, exploit them in the future. I'm still new to the gap plays but have reason to believe they can be profitable with a decent Risk/Reward.
Good morning! :)
I'm watching the GBP/USD, trying to keep an open mind and am looking to either short at 1.985 resist test or go long on the break of. The US fundies aren't helping much but on the other side, the UK isn't doing much better.
Trying to wait for some trending to come along...nothing as of yet. Talks of EUR/USD getting geared up for another big run up but I don't really like to trade this pair. Bigger moves and a little too crazy for me.
Also keeping an eye on AUD/USD...lots of talk about this hitting parity & I think it will happen. Just need to score a nice entry and be ready to wait.
As far as gap plays yesterday afternoon, USD/JPY & EUR/JPY both had nice 50+ pip gaps that were filled. USD/JPY had a similar 50 pip gap last Sunday that also filled. I'll continue to try and track these and if possible, exploit them in the future. I'm still new to the gap plays but have reason to believe they can be profitable with a decent Risk/Reward.
Good morning! :)
Friday, June 6, 2008
E/J moved up to 166 last night but has yet to close above. Markets close in another six hours or so and it looks like I'll be waiting until next week to trade.
I'll be looking over the charts this weekend to see if we can generate any trade ideas for next week. Also, meet up in the gap play chat room at HSM...starts at about 2PM PST
http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/showthread.php?t=60493
Have a good weekend!
I'll be looking over the charts this weekend to see if we can generate any trade ideas for next week. Also, meet up in the gap play chat room at HSM...starts at about 2PM PST
http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/showthread.php?t=60493
Have a good weekend!
Thursday, June 5, 2008
Watching the EUR/JPY for a possible short at the 165 resist.
Shown below, it did bounce off the 165 (actually 164.97 or so) and I'm looking to see it down further. The run up seems to be a combination of both technical (rising trendline over the last few days) and fundemental (ECB keeping rates unchanged).
My primary concern is that it did break the downward trendline that's been in formation since July...but we'll see if price will come back down below 164 in order to keep within this trendline.
Update: 165 blown, next resistance points @ 166 & 166.25 if E/J can hold above 165 on the daily.
Shown below, it did bounce off the 165 (actually 164.97 or so) and I'm looking to see it down further. The run up seems to be a combination of both technical (rising trendline over the last few days) and fundemental (ECB keeping rates unchanged).
My primary concern is that it did break the downward trendline that's been in formation since July...but we'll see if price will come back down below 164 in order to keep within this trendline.
Update: 165 blown, next resistance points @ 166 & 166.25 if E/J can hold above 165 on the daily.
Sunday, June 1, 2008
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