Monday, April 13, 2009

Watching GBP/USD...

...1.5 level.

I'm unsure what I think about it...I feel it's not all that strong right now. Ideally, I'd like to scale in shorts around 1.495 on up to 1.5 but after the roller coaster this morning on the EUR/USD, I'm feeling a little more risk adverse.

We'll see and watching price action as it approaches the level. A small position wouldn't hurt but as for really scaling in, I think I'll hold off for a level that I feel more comfortable with.

Out of AUD/USD for +15

No real movement during the session.

EUR/USD & AUD/USD Action

I shorted the EUR/USD this morning on the first move up above 1.33 for +40. Began scaling in again around 1.333-1.334 in anticipation of the original expected bounce at the 50% fib but price blew through to 1.338. I reduced my initial short (closed at BE) and added an additional short up at 1.338. Closed all positions just a few minutes ago with the drop back down to 1.3335 for a small gain.

My thinking was to continue scaling in for a bounce at the 68% or 1.34-1.3415 but I will instead try and play that bounce directly tonight/tomorrow. 1.35 corresponds with the overall trend down and I wouldn't mind scaling up to that price range for the eventual long haul back to 1.31

I'm also in with a tiny short on the AUD/USD, trying to pick up 80-100 points on a bounce from .73 (previous resistance high). R:R looks too good to pass up yet since I don't often trade this pair, I'm keeping the position size tiny.

Some screenshots below show what I'm looking for...

EUR/USD:



AUD/USD: